Another Trudeau Scandal

Many in the media are all aflutter because Justin Trudeau has stopped announcing his itinerary and has resorted to just showing up at places. These media folks claim that Justin Trudeau is lying about his whereabouts and hiding from Canadians.

That's it. That's the final straw. The only solution is for Mr. Trudeau to resign.

Of course none of these media types points out that Mr. Trudeau is the first politician to announce his whereabouts at all and that includes all of the past PMs and current politicians such as Mr. Poilievre. Mr. Trudeau made the conscious decision to buck past practice but now that he has decided to stop doing that it is a "scandal".

As well, none of these media types mention that the political environment today is much more toxic that it was in 2015. Hell it is more toxic that it was in 2021 when there were people throwing rocks at the PM during the election of that year. Although, many in the media have argued that "rocks" is a misrepresentation of the objects that were thrown. They were actually "pebble". Schmucks.

It is a fact that a few years ago some guy rammed the gates of Rideau Hall, probably to do harm to the PM, but he was stopped by security. The media at that time played down that aspect of the event instead focusing on that fact the guy was a "happy sausage maker". Really, this guy just drove from Manitoba to Ottawa, with a pickup truck full of firearms and rammed the gates of the Official Residence of the Governor General and the Prime Minister because he wanted a fulsome discussion on the finer points of the government's environmental policies with the PM.

It is also a fact that this summer two men were charged with threatening the PM. 

Finally, Mr. Bexte ambushed the PM on a beach while he was on vacation with his kids. Bexte is an idiot and a poseur but he is harmless. He would not have the guts to actually try to harm the PM but there are others out there who would. Incidentally, Mr. Bexte must have been disappointed. He always has people there to record his stupidity and in this case he was probably hoping that they would get a juicy recording of the PM's security detail wrestling him to the ground. That did not happen and then the PM schooled him when Mr. Bexte asked his questions. 

With all of this it is no wonder Mr. Trudeau stopped announcing his itinerary in advance. His security detail probably recommended it. Indeed, I would bet that they recommended it awhile ago and he finally decided to take that advice. Good on him and I hope he continues to do so. It is bad security practice to tell those that might want to do you harm where you are going to be in advance.

Another aspect of this "scandal" is the PM has been showing up at places where there are large crowds to "give the impression that he is more popular than he really is." While it is true he is showing up at these events it is also true that no other Federal leader is doing the same thing. Both Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh could do the same thing. The question is why are they not doing so. Mr. Poilievre in particular is supposed to be running away from the PM in the polls. You would think he would take every opportunity to show that popularity by spontaneously intermingling with ordinary Canadians. Imagine the fawning by our media if there were pictures similar to the ones that came out last week of the PM at the opening of the CNE and other events. That is not happening and I would love to hear someone ask the reason for that.

The Ukrainians Open Up a Second Front

It has been expected for weeks that the Ukrainians would launch a summer offensive but it was also expected that they would launch it at the static front in Eastern Ukraine. Instead they attached North into Russia itself.

A couple of things.

First, the fact the Ukrainians could launch the offensive and encounter little to no resistance is a testament to Russian hubris. They firmly believed that the Ukrainians would never have the temerity to actually launch ground operations into Russia itself so they never actually defended against such a possibility. Make no mistake, if they had the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Region would have been nothing more than a raid in force, ending almost as soon as it began.

This could change the strategic situation on the ground somewhat. With this incursion the Russians are going to have to spread their troops a little thinner to prevent a repeat of it after the Ukrainians finally withdraw. Up until now the Russians could concentrate their forces in the Donbass region, effectively outnumbering the Ukrainians at the point of attack. Now they are going to have to put more troops on the other borders with Ukraine. Where are those troops going to come from? They will either come from Eastern Ukraine for from Russia itself. In the first instance that will lead to the weakening of the Russian lines in the East and in the second instance it will lead to less reinforcements being available to replace the losses they have been experiencing in the the war of attrition taking place in the east. Either way, things just got harder for Russian commanders.

The question that this incursion does not answer is whether the Ukrainians, with their superior equipment, training and morale, can outlast the Russians, with their greater number of soldiers and their total lack of concern about casualties. That has been the question of this war since it began.

Democratic Party VP Choice, Bots and still no election speculation

VP Harris made a decent choice with Governor Walz. I still believe she should have chosen someone a little more centrist or slightly right-of-centre to offset her slight left-of-centre instincts but the Governor is a middle-aged white guy, with an honourable military service record and who likes to do "manly" things like hunting and fishing. That should allow those who do not like Mr. Trump but who would be uncomfortable with the prospect of a woman of colour as President to feel a little better about it. The whole point is to not provide them with a reason to stay home in November. She might have accomplished that.

For now, ignore the polls. It is predictable that Ms. Harris would receive a bump in them when she took over the nomination and named a running mate. They will receive another bump after the convention and then the hard slogging to November will commence. Do not bank on any bumps being permanent.

So the Conservatives in Canada got into a little trouble because thousands of bots wrote glowing reports on his visit to Kirkland Lake. That made me laugh considering how small that town is. However, it would also seem to indicate that these bots acted without the knowledge of the CPC as they would probably have been able to predict that having more bots than the actual population of Kirkland Lake mentioning his visit would raise eyebrows. This still warrants an investigation of who owns these bots and their motivation for releasing them into our politics. Foreign actors are interfering in our politics more and more and I believe something more substantial than the inquiries we have seen so far into this issue needs to be done. A full blown Royal Commission, with broad powers to call witnesses and access evidence, would be very useful. 

It has been more than a year since the CPC took a double digit lead over the Liberals in the public polls yet no one is suggesting that we will have an election before the Fall of 2025 despite the fact the Liberals are leading a minority government. Remember, election speculation is a favourite pass time of our media. Hell, they have been talking about Doug Ford calling a snap election even though we just went through a provincial election in 2022. So why no election speculation when the Federal Liberals have been trailing the CPC by double digits for a year or so? Maybe, and I am just spit balling here, those polls are full of crap and the actual political situation at the federal level is much different from what the public polls are saying. Maybe all involved, the political parties and the media, have access to data they are not sharing with the public that is showing a much different situation. It is absolutely unprecedented that a minority government has survived more than a year while trailing its main opponent in the public polls. Something is just not adding up.