I have had this question percolated in my head for some time and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on the weekend caused it to gel.
The simple fact is even before the attempt it could be said that Donald Trump is an old, over weight man who could go at any time by natural causes. The same is certainly true of Joe Biden, except he is not over weight. Kind of makes you wonder just how broken politics is in the US that it cannot put up candidates that have more than an even chance living to 2028 but that is the topic for another post.
So when he goes what happens to MAGA? It is a fact that MAGA's only loyalty is to Donald Trump. It really is his own personal cult of personality. They have absolutely no loyalty to the Republican Party just like he has no loyalty to it. They only care about Donald Trump.
So when he goes is there someone that can replace him? I know that some would try but I believe there is no one who would be able to take his place. Love him or hate him but Donald Trump is a larger than life figure, which is why he has been able to get away with all of the shit he has been getting away with since before he entered politics. So although there are many like him who would share his populist political outlook and who would be more than willing to lie their ass off for political advantage they would not have the same snake oil salesman vibe, being able to work up a crowd like Donald Trump.
And really, a large number of MAGA are only involved in politics because of Donald Trump. When he goes so will many of them.
So when he goes the Republican Party will be in some trouble. They have completely alienated moderate Americans by embracing Mr. Trump and many MAGA's will turn away from politics. That would be a large number of voters not voting for Republicans. Then again, many of those who hate Donald Trump, who have only voted that last few elections because of their dislike of him, may decide to abandon politics as well.
It could be a wash but I believe it would not be. Republicans are going to be more impacted by his disappearance and for a couple of elections the Republicans would have to go through a period of adjustment to recapture more moderate Americans. Or not. After all, Donald Trump is just the logical extension of the Tea Party movement that took over the Republican Party a couple of decades ago. In all likelihood, the departure of Donald Trump would provide the Tea Partiers the opportunity to retake the Republican Party.
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