VP Harris, Do Not Choose Pete Buttigieg as your Running Mate

In my previous post I asserted that the nomination of Ms. Harris as the Presidential candidate for the Democrats will make them winning the White House more difficult than if Mr. Biden was the nominee. The reason is I believe that there are many who may really  dislike the idea of Donald Trump being President again who are also uncomfortable with the idea of a woman of colour being President. That could result in many of them staying home on election day, particularly in some of the states she needs to carry to win the election.

If she now turns around and selects an openly gay man as her running mate she can probably kiss the White House goodbye and the Democrats would probably lose both Houses of Congress as well.

While having those two running together is the proverbial wet dream for progressives on both sides of the border those very same progressives have to remember that not everybody thinks like them. Racism and homophobia are still very strong in the US, even amongst voters who identify as Democrat, so having both a visible minority and a gay person running together, along with the Presidential candidate being a woman could be a recipe for disaster.

It is unfortunate but that is the hand she has been dealt.

I am willing to accept the idea of such a ticket attracting alot of new young voters but history has demonstrated that while young voters may be becoming more and more involved in politics they still do not vote in numbers to really effect outcomes. So, if the Democrats are counting on the youth vote to act as a counterweight to those more dependable voters who would be uncomfortable with a woman of colour as President and a gay man as Vice President they could be in for great disappointment.

So please Ms. Harris, choose a middle aged, white guy, who is just a little right of centre as your running mate. Yes I know that they are already overrepresented in politics but they still reflect a sizable proportion of your electorate (and ours in Canada) so you cannot ignore their concerns and expect to win.

The Democrats just made their life a whole lot harder

An alternate title for this post could also be: "Is the US Ready to Elect a Woman of Colour as President?

As I stated in a previous post the election in November was going to be about Donald Trump and whether Americans wanted to have him back as President. Although he was up against an old man in Joe Biden I believed that Americans would again reject Donald Trump for the highest office in the land. More people hate Mr. Trump than love him and that would have carried the Democrats as long as they could bring out their vote. Yes, Joe Biden is an old man but, to be brutally honest, he is a white old man so many people who prefer such as President could safely plant their vote there if they were inclined to vote against Donald Trump.

Now that advantage for the Democrats is gone. There are many Americans who dislike Donald Trump, who would not vote for him, who would also dislike the idea of a woman of colour as President. This would be particularly true in some of the states the Democrats have to carry in order to win, Georgia being a very good example. That is unfortunate but that does not make it any less true. BTW, one of the strikes against Hillary Clinton was she is a woman. That was not the only thing that went against her but do not be so naïve to think that it was not a factor. 

I do not believe that those who hate Donald Trump and who would be uncomfortable with Ms. Harris as President will switch their votes. However, they may just decide to stay home. I do believe that the GOTV efforts of the Democrats in several key states will much more challenging. 

I believe that VP Harris would probably make a good president and looking at her resume she is not any less qualified than some of the other candidates who have won the presidency in the last 30 years but you cannot deny that her gender and colour will be a factor for a significant number of voters come November. I am not saying she cannot win but her path to victory is probably narrower than Joe Biden's would have been, the recent hype about his age notwithstanding.

The election was always going to come down to voter turnout. Whichever side is most successful in getting their voters to come out is going to win. The Democrats just reduced their chances of being the side that accomplishes that task.

Who Would Replace Donald Trump for the MAGA Crowd?

I have had this question percolated in my head for some time and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on the weekend caused it to gel.

The simple fact is even before the attempt it could be said that Donald Trump is an old, over weight man who could go at any time by natural causes. The same is certainly true of Joe Biden, except he is not over weight. Kind of makes you wonder just how broken politics is in the US that it cannot put up candidates that have more than an even chance living to 2028 but that is the topic for another post.

So when he goes what happens to MAGA? It is a fact that MAGA's only loyalty is to Donald Trump. It really is his own personal cult of personality. They have absolutely no loyalty to the Republican Party just like he has no loyalty to it. They only care about Donald Trump.

So when he goes is there someone that can replace him? I know that some would try but I believe there is no one who would be able to take his place. Love him or hate him but Donald Trump is a larger than life figure, which is why he has been able to get away with all of the shit he has been getting away with since before he entered politics. So although there are many like him who would share his populist political outlook and who would be more than willing to lie their ass off for political advantage they would not have the same snake oil salesman vibe, being able to work up a crowd like Donald Trump. 

And really, a large number of MAGA are only involved in politics because of Donald Trump. When he goes so will many of them.

So when he goes the Republican Party will be in some trouble. They have completely alienated moderate Americans by embracing Mr. Trump and many MAGA's will turn away from politics. That would be a large number of voters not voting for Republicans. Then again, many of those who hate Donald Trump, who have only voted that last few elections because of their dislike of him, may decide to abandon politics as well. 

It could be a wash but I believe it would not be. Republicans are going to be more impacted by his disappearance  and for a couple of elections the Republicans would have to go through a period of adjustment to recapture more moderate Americans. Or not. After all, Donald Trump is just the logical extension of the Tea Party movement that took over the Republican Party a couple of decades ago. In all likelihood, the departure of Donald Trump would provide the Tea Partiers the opportunity to retake the Republican Party.

People Usually Vote Against Someone not for Someone

That is a simple fact.

I know several people who are Conservative supporters and all of them do not really like Pierre Poilievre. Indeed, I heard one of them call him a f&*%King asshole a few months ago. However, most of these folks absolutely hate Justin Trudeau so they will overlook the general assholery of Mr. Poilievre if they can get rid of PMJT.

I bring this up because of all of the wingeing over Joe Biden's debate performance last week. The doom and gloom is misplaced. I can pretty much guarantee that the reason he became president is not because the voters liked him and were inspired by him. He became president because people hated Donald Trump and wanted him gone. 

Donald Trump is a polarizing figure. Those who love him really love him but those who hate him really hate him. Unfortunately for him there are more people who hate him than love him. That was proven in 2016 and in 2020. I imagine that it will be true in 2024. He has not done anything in the last four years to reach out to those who hate him, in fact, he did the exact opposite. So the biggest threat to Joe Biden's bid for a second term is not voters turning away from him to Donald Trump but people who voted for him in 2020 deciding to stay home. Donald Trump will probably not gain any more votes than he gained in 2016 and 2020. All the Democrats need to do is convince those who hate Donald Trump to come out and vote and they will win.

In the Canadian context this voter motivation is the reason why Conservatives and their media allies are trying so damned hard to get Canadians to hate Justin Trudeau and have him resign. After all, there are countless examples of people voting against a party over voting for one. I can assure you that very few people felt happy voting for the Harper or Ford Conservatives or the Trudeau Liberals. Voters were just voting against people and governments they really did not like and in those cases enough people did so to bring about a change in government.

Judging by the increasingly shrill and strident calls for his resignation by the media I would say that they are not succeeding in turning Canadians against PMJT. Certainly, there is a small minority of Canadians who hate him for many reasons but they have always hated him and I would guess that their number is not increasing fast enough to the liking of Conservatives. As well, I would like to point out that the media is focusing exclusively on trying to get Canadians to hate Justin Trudeau but no one is trying to get Canadians to like Pierre Poilievre, including Mr. Poilievre himself. They are content to keep preaching to their base while working diligently to get Canadians to hate Mr. Trudeau. 

Yes, yes, yes, I know what the polls are saying but I also know that polls never tell the whole story and in many cases the story they do tell is often wrong. 

By the time the election rolls around in 2025 the Conservatives might be successful in their efforts to turn Canadians against Justin Trudeau, or that might just happen organically as a result of the sheer amount of time the Liberals will have been the government. However, at the moment, judging by the actions of the Conservatives and the media, they have not done that yet.

If they have not been able to do it and if Conservative opponents can be somewhat successful in reminding voters of why they do not like the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre then the next election will not be the shoe in for the CPC that most political commentators are saying it will be.

So in 2025 the ballot question is going to be who are the voters going to be more against? I am not even going to attempt a guess at this point.