Now the Polls are Just Becoming Ridiculous

Glancing through my political sights today I noticed a screen shot of a seat projection that had the Conservatives above 200 seats and the Liberals under 70.

After I stopped laughing I could not help but think that the pollsters and the pundits that report on these ridiculous polls are setting up some really big expectations for the CPC.

In the last few change elections, both Federally and here in Ontario, the party that won the election and replaced the sitting government started out trailing the incumbent or were tied with them. They did not have commanding leads going into an election campaign, they built one as the campaign unfolded.

With the Conservatives currently polling in the low 40 there is only one way the Conservative estimates can go. 

Down.

When it will happen remains to be seen and if my suspicions about polling companies are correct they will not go down any time soon. However, when the writ is dropped, and the polling companies will have to compare their estimates with actual election results, things could get rather sticky for them and the Conservatives.

If, as I suspect, the polls are not currently reflecting the true picture of the political situation in this country then the pollsters will have to begin showing that before an election if they want to be considered credible after that election. If their estimates are way off on election day they will never be trusted again and they know it. Plus, they will threaten their paying business of doing surveys since survey companies use political polling as marketing tools.

The implications for the Conservatives is their polling estimates will go down while the Liberals will go up and then the story will be the Liberals have the momentum, which could be a death blow to the Conservatives' election chances, particularly if it happens close to or during an election campaign.

There has been a full court press by the Canadian media to have Justin Trudeau resign as PM, although none of them have engaged in election speculation, despite massive polling leads for the Conservatives. That should be a clue by the way. I suspect the pollsters are on board with assisting the media in their efforts since they have no worries about their estimates being tested by an actual election. 

I also believe that the very sophisticated data management teams of the political parties have data indicating the true political situation in the country, which is why Justin Trudeau has not shown any indication of leaving and his caucus is solidly behind him. It also explains, that except for a few drive by suggestions by the Conservatives to the NDP, no pressure has been placed on the NDP and the Bloc to join the Conservatives in forcing an election. 

Mr. Trudeau probably has data telling him he can outwait the polling companies. Mr. Poilievre probably has data indicating that an election would not be the slam dunk the public pollsters are saying it would be. Either way both seem to be content to let things go on as they have been going on for the foreseeable future.

In an effort to push PM Trudeau out of his job our media could be overplaying its hand and in the end they could make things very difficult for Pierre Poilievre as we get closer to an election.