In my previous two posts I asserted that the only way Israel realizes real security is by making an equitable peace with its neighbours and that not doing so and continuing with the never ending cycles of intense violence, followed by relative calms, is insanity.
That assertion assumes that the Israelis want to make peace and achieve that security and that all Palestinians want peace with Israel.
It might seem crazy to believe otherwise but history has proven that there are hawks on both sides of the Israeli/Palestinian divide that do not want peace. These hawks believe that there is a military solution to the situation and if given enough time and resources they can achieve it.
It just so happens that Israel is being lead by one of those hawks and the Palestinians in Gaza are being lead by their Palestinian counterpart.
Mr. Netanyahu firmly believes in the military solution and Hamas has as a central tenet of its ideology the destruction of the State of Israel. Both are out to lunch of course. If Israel really could resolve their conflict with the Palestinians by brute military force they would have done so by now, and I will have unicorns fly out of my butt before Hamas destroys Israel.
However, one thing that this situation does for both is provide them with domestic political cover.
Mr. Netanyahu was having some really serious political trouble before last weekend. He was facing indictments and protests over the changes to Israeli institutions that would make it easier for him to undermine Israeli democracy. His counterpart in the Gaza Strip has the problem of not being able to deliver the most basic services to Palestinians in Gaza. In most other jurisdictions that would be a recipe for political defeat.
Then the weekend happened and all of this went away. Hamas will remind Gazans that Israeli actions are to blame for the hardships in Gaza and Mr. Netanyahu will be able to drape himself in the flag and claim that to oppose him would be disloyal to Israel. The fact he will use his sudden popularity to advance his authoritarian agenda, which will also allow him to quash the indictments against him should surprise no one.
In fact, this is not new. Both Hamas and Mr. Netanyahu have benefited greatly from the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians of Gaza for two decades. They have been playing off each other the whole time and both have realized tremendous domestic political benefits. In other words the relationship between Mr. Netanyahu and the leaders of Hamas has been a symbiotic one. That is not to say that they are having secret Zoom meetings to plan this relationship. It just means that both know their roles in this kabuki play and they are quite happy to play them
Which is why, despite all of the grand claims by the Israelis about destroying Hamas, nothing will really be changed by the latest round of violence. Many people are going to die over the next few weeks but in the end there will be no fundamental change to the underlying relationship between the Israeli government and the leadership of Hamas.
1 comment:
I will have unicorns fly out of my butt before Hamas destroys Israel.
And watch out for those low- flying pigs too.
What does seem to be happening is that this abomination has destroyed any hope that the Arab and much of the Islamic world might have any thought of normal relations with Israel.
It looks to me that this horror show and the US reaction to it has destroyed years of US diplomacy, such as it is, in the Middle East and has very seriously threatened US hegemony in the area. Watching the President of the USA get the brush-off from King Abullah of Jordan, President El Sisi of Egypt and Mahmood Abbas of the Palestinian was a bit startling.
Add to this the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Iran having a telephone conversation the other day and Tony Blinken let kicking his heels overnight in Riyadh.
Hamas, by itself, has no chance of defeating Israel. What it could and did do was massively upset the balances of alliance in much of the World. And given the quality of leadership in the USA and much of the Western World, god help us.
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