The Ukraine War, One Year Later

If you would have told me this time last year that the Ukraine war would still be going on in a year I would have disagreed with you. While I did not believe Ukraine would just roll over I also did not believe that they would be able hold as long as they have.

A few months after the war started and when the Western media was saying that Ukraine was actually winning the war I stated in this space that they were probably overstating the case. Since then the Ukrainians have recaptured some territory but the Russians have still not gone away. Indeed, they have dug in for a long war.

Western media and many commentators are still saying the Ukrainians are winning and the Russians are losing. I am not so certain. From what I am seeing neither side is winning right now. It has descended into a war of attrition and the winner will be the one that can last the longest.

The Russians have the manpower advantage. They can keep calling up reservists and throwing them into the fray. Yes, their casualties will be high but so will be those of the Ukrainians, who do not have the manpower reserves of the Russians. The hope that the Russian people will grow tired of the war and boot Mr. Putin is probably false hope. If he is still there now he will probably be staying.

The Ukrainians have the money advantage. They are receiving financial and military support from the West that should allow them to hold out much longer than if they did not. The Russians on the other hand are short of both money and military equipment. I noticed in a non-western media report last week that the Russians are starting to deploy their third string tanks. That is the new units being formed to continue the war are going into battle in tanks that were obsolete when Pierre Trudeau was PM of Canada. Having them go up against Western first line tanks and modern hand held anti-tank missile systems is a recipe for much death and destructions amongst Russian tankers.

So it is a question of which one will no longer be able to sustain the war first. Will the Ukrainians just run out of men to fight? Or with the Russians just run out money and equipment? 

I do not know the answer but I can say that the longer this goes on the weaker the Russian strategic position becomes. That will not change regardless of the eventual military outcome of the war. Then again, the Ukrainians are not going to come out of this war in great shape either and I would bet a sizable chunk of money that if they do prevail the same Western governments that supported them militarily will be alot less generous with funds to help them rebuild.

Like I said I do not believe that either side is winning and in the long run both will probably come out losers of this war.