My guess, at this time, is the Ontario Conservatives of Doug Ford will win the election on June 2. The only question is whether it will be a majority government or a minority government.
If were still not living through a global pandemic, that has disrupted out lives for the past two years, I would say the Conservatives were a lock to win another majority. It would be a smaller majority and the Liberals would leap into second place, but it would still be a majority. The reason is historical voting patterns. It is very rare for a first term majority government to not be returned with a second, smaller majority, and it is almost unheard of for a first term majority government to lose their second election.
Of course, most of that history did not occur with a global pandemic as a backdrop. The pandemic has changed politics in this country but it is a question of by how much. Did it change it enough to overcome a century old voting pattern? We will see.
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