Watching the Conservative Party of Canada provide aid and comfort to the ever decreasing and increasingly desperate antivaxxers in Canada I cannot help but think that they could have avoided all of the problems they have been having if they were competent, if they would show a little courage and if they would think past the next round of polling from the public pollsters.
None of this has happened and the result is they cannot gain any traction against a government that is getting longer in the tooth with each passing week.
The simple fact is the majority of Canadians support the measures that have been taken by governments to bring COVID under control and return to a semblance of pre-COVID normalcy. Unfortunately, there is a small and ever decreasing minority of Canadians who disagree with these measures and the gap is not even close. Over 80% of Canadians are double vaxxed, the number who have three shots is in the 70% range and both are increasing. Therefore, the number of antivaxxers is less than 20% and that diminishes on a daily basis. So which group has the Conservative Party hitched its wagon to? The smaller one of course. *Face palm*
It has got to the point where they are actually offering overt support for a protest that started out as an "antivaxxer" protest but is quickly morphing into an antigovernment, white supremist protest. If some of the more extreme elements of these protesters are able to voice their positions and they are in any way connected to the CPC that party will turn off voters in all of the parts of the country they need to have any hope of gaining power, namely the major cities and their suburbs. If the protest becomes violent, like some fear, then that would be even worse news for the CPC. Their only saving grace would be the compliant media which will attempt to shield them from the worst fallout.
So, why are the CPC doing this? It does not take a genius political operative to figure out that going against the opinion of the vast majority of Canadians is not a winning political strategy.
One reason maybe the CPC brain trust just cannot do simple math, although I do not believe that. What I believe is the CPC is following the strategy that they have been following since 2006. Keep your base happy and energized and then try to convince enough non-aligned voters to vote for them. It worked in 2006, 2008 and 2011. It has not worked since then but they have not changed their strategy to account for the new reality. That is the incompetence.
The fear is the Peoples Party of Canada. In order for the 2006-2011 strategy to work the CPC has to keep its base intact. The PPC is threatening that with their simple-minded message. Crucially, the antivaxxers have decided that they trust the PPC over the CPC to stick to the message. The result is the CPC has to attempt to win them back.
That presents a very high risk of alienating the majority of Canadians. You cannot alienate the vast majority of voters and expect to win an election. I believe there are a few people in the CPC that see this but the combination of fear and incompetence amongst the real power brokers in the party prevents them from changing their approach.
1 comment:
They already have splintered.
Maxime Bernier took the most extreme and deluded elements with him and moderate conservatives are only a fantasy now. The current political climate allows for less and less moderation. Then there is what remains of the CPC, stuck in the "middle".
They are still extremely conservative by historical standards and they are being lead by people who believe ideological purity is of the utmost importance but I do not believe they will split again. They will stumble along until Canadians finally grow tired of the Liberal government and if the Conservatives can choose a leader with a little charisma and leadership skills they might be able to eke out a victory. Unfortunately for them there is probably no one on the radar that fits that bill.
They might be able to fix the rift with the PPC or at least those who have deserted the CPC for them might come back if the pandemic and the topic of vaccines and vaccine mandates becomes less of a hot issue. However, ironically, the very actions of the PPC and the CPC are making sure that they will continue to be hot issues in conservative circles.
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