That does not mean that they have to worry about Donald Trump or that they have to worry about being compared to him. Let's face it, any one of the several prominent Conservative politicians in this country could rip of a face mask and reveal themselves to be The Donald himself and the Canadian media would ignore it and find something else to talk about.
No, their Trump problem is they have not fully understood the Trump phenomenon. Donald Trump rose to power because he was facing an unpopular Democratic opponent after the Democrats had held the presidency for eight years. The electorate in the US wanted a change and they did not believe that the change they would be getting from Donald Trump would be the dumpster fire that it turned out to be. The fact that his opponent was a woman probably hurt the Democrat's chances on top of that.
Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney had similar conditions when they won their victories. They were facing unpopular incumbent governments, coincidentally lead by women, who were ripe for the picking and so they won. The problem for Mr. Ford, Mr. Kenney and Mr. Trump is they all believed their victories were the result of their political genius. They failed to realize that their opponents had big disadvantages going into their campaigns and that their respective electorates were thirsting for change.
So with this inflated image of their own political acumen these three men began to "govern" by creating five alarm dumpster fires before a global pandemic happened. Then when the pandemic hit the small dumpster fire exploded into something much bigger because none of these three men are any where near competent at the best of times.
The result for Donald Trump is he became that rare bird in American politics, a one term president. He lost that election because after four years it become very obvious that he was not cut out for the job and that his political acumen and that of this campaign team was non existent. Really, as the incumbent president if he would have shown even a little competence during the beginning of the pandemic he would be enjoying a second term.
The problem for Canadian Conservatives is they are following the same failed playbook as Donald Trump. It boggles my mind how Mr. Ford, Mr. Kenney and their political strategists have not looked at how Donald Trump lost the White House and then did not change their approach to governing. It is true that our First Past the Post electoral system may be able to save them but neither Mr. Ford or Mr. Kenney should have to worry about that as they are in their first terms. However, although I would not count either one out, both are in for a tough fight when they have to face the voters again.
The example is Mr. Ford's handling of the pandemic since Christmas. Remember that many were praising Mr. Ford's handling of the pandemic this time last year. He was riding high in the polls and conventional wisdom was he would cruise to a second term. Then he stopped listening to the experts with regard to opening up the province with the predicted skyrocketing of positive infections being the outcome.
At that point he could have shown a little humility and changed course. Instead he went full Trump, going full steam ahead and he began blaming others for his shortcoming. The vaccine shortage gambit by him was truly tone-deaf. Most Ontarian understood that vaccines would start as a trickle and then become a flood. As well, I was amazed at how long Mr. Ford kept flogging that narrative. Even when a simple Google search could allow you to find out exactly how many doses Ontario had received and administered, and the number of doses in freezers, Mr. Ford kept up the narrative. It is no coincidence that his political troubles started when he refused to let go of the "vaccine shortage" strategy when it was demonstrated to be absolutely false.
He finally abandoned that gambit to switch to the borders being the cause of infections. This strategy is even worse than the vaccine shortage one. The amount of information out there to prove his assertions wrong is impressive and people are finding it and disseminating it. It is an open question of how long he will be pushing this strategy but I would bet he will still be pushing it long after it is completely and thoroughly debunked.
Mr. Trump was not a successful politician. He did not win the White House because of his political genius and his total lack in political acumen is what cost him the White House when he faced an opponent with alot less baggage than Hillary Clinton. The political playbook created by Mr. Trump and his political strategists was nothing more than an oversize paper weight. So it is surprising that Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney have not recognized that fact and pivoted away from using that same playbook. Alot can happen between how and the next elections in Ontario and Alberta and both Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney are still the favourites to win but with each passing week where they continue to use the Trump playbook they increase the likelihood of being one term Premiers.
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