Canadian Conservatives have a Trump Problem

That does not mean that they have to worry about Donald Trump or that they have to worry about being compared to him. Let's face it, any one of the several prominent Conservative politicians in this country could rip of a face mask and reveal themselves to be The Donald himself and the Canadian media would ignore it and find something else to talk about.

No, their Trump problem is they have not fully understood the Trump phenomenon. Donald Trump rose to power because he was facing an unpopular Democratic opponent after the Democrats had held the presidency for eight years. The electorate in the US wanted a change and they did not believe that the change they would be getting from Donald Trump would be the dumpster fire that it turned out to be. The fact that his opponent was a woman probably hurt the Democrat's chances on top of that.

Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney had similar conditions when they won their victories. They were facing unpopular incumbent governments, coincidentally lead by women, who were ripe for the picking and so they won. The problem for Mr. Ford, Mr. Kenney and Mr. Trump is they all believed their victories were the result of their political genius. They failed to realize that their opponents had big disadvantages going into their campaigns and that their respective electorates were thirsting for change. 

So with this inflated image of their own political acumen these three men began to "govern" by creating five alarm dumpster fires before a global pandemic happened. Then when the pandemic hit the small dumpster fire exploded into something much bigger because none of these three men are any where near competent at the best of times.

The result for Donald Trump is he became that rare bird in American politics, a one term president. He lost that election because after four years it become very obvious that he was not cut out for the job and that his political acumen and that of this campaign team was non existent. Really, as the incumbent president if he would have shown even a little competence during the beginning of the pandemic he would be enjoying a second term.

The problem for Canadian Conservatives is they are following the same failed playbook as Donald Trump. It boggles my mind how Mr. Ford, Mr. Kenney and their political strategists have not looked at how Donald Trump lost the White House and then did not change their approach to governing. It is true that our First Past the Post electoral system may be able to save them but neither Mr. Ford or Mr. Kenney should have to worry about that as they are in their first terms. However, although I would not count either one out, both are in for a tough fight when they have to face the voters again.

The example is Mr. Ford's handling of the pandemic since Christmas. Remember that many were praising Mr. Ford's handling of the pandemic this time last year. He was riding high in the polls and conventional wisdom was he would cruise to a second term. Then he stopped listening to the experts with regard to opening up the province with the predicted skyrocketing of positive infections being the outcome. 

At that point he could have shown a little humility and changed course. Instead he went full Trump, going full steam ahead and he began blaming others for his shortcoming. The vaccine shortage gambit by him was truly tone-deaf. Most Ontarian understood that vaccines would start as a trickle and then become a flood. As well, I was amazed at how long Mr. Ford kept flogging that narrative. Even when a simple Google search could allow you to find out exactly how many doses Ontario had received and administered, and the number of doses in freezers, Mr. Ford kept up the narrative. It is no coincidence that his political troubles started when he refused to let go of the "vaccine shortage" strategy when it was demonstrated to be absolutely false.

He finally abandoned that gambit to switch to the borders being the cause of infections. This strategy is even worse than the vaccine shortage one. The amount of information out there to prove his assertions wrong is impressive and people are finding it and disseminating it. It is an open question of how long he will be pushing this strategy but I would bet he will still be pushing it long after it is completely and thoroughly debunked.

Mr. Trump was not a successful politician. He did not win the White House because of his political genius and his total lack in political acumen is what cost him the White House when he faced an opponent with alot less baggage than Hillary Clinton. The political playbook created by Mr. Trump and his political strategists was nothing more than an oversize paper weight. So it is surprising that Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney have not recognized that fact and pivoted away from using that same playbook. Alot can happen between how and the next elections in Ontario and Alberta and both Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney are still the favourites to win but with each passing week where they continue to use the Trump playbook they increase the likelihood of being one term Premiers.

Why are Conservatives so Anti-Science?

Just to be clear not all conservatives are anti-science but most people I have seen who have dismissed science and scientific evidence tend to be conservative.

As well, certainly most Conservative leaders seem to be against science or at least choose to ignore it. This feature cuts across cultures and languages. In Ontario, Alberta, Trump's American, Brazil, the UK, The Philippines, to name just a few, the leaders of these political jurisdiction have ignored science on a whole host of issues and in many cases they are actually proud of their stance. How anybody can show pride in embracing ignorance is beyond me.

I used to think this as a largely English speaking white guy phenomenon but we are seeing this in many other political jurisdiction where conservatives have a significant presence. And it is not just with the conservative leadership either. Ordinary citizens of these places, who identify as conservative, are militantly anti-science. It seems that if a scientist says something then they disagree out of spite. "The sky is blue." said Dr. Smith. "No it is not." said President Trump.

If this were just an English speaking white guy thing I would just put it down to the knowledge that their days of ruling the world for their own benefit is coming to an end and they are just acting out. However, with conservatives of other ethnic groups following suit it is probably not that simple.

Maybe it is historical determinism. History has moved back and forth between enlightenment and ignorance for thousands of years. Every historical era where human civilizations acquired new knowledge, such as the ancient Mesopotamian civilizations, ancient Egypt, ancient Greece, Rome and the Arab world after the death of Mohammed have been followed by eras where superstition and ignorance reigned supreme. The last era where knowledge was valued for its intrinsic value was the Enlightenment. It lasted will into the 20th Century so maybe it should not be a surprise that we are seeing a backlash against it. It has happened before so it is no surprise that it is happening again.

I have never been completely sold on the historical determinism idea. Yes, humans do seem to have this habit of not learning from history so that we seem to repeat it but that cannot be the only reason. A second reason, which I find is more compelling, is science is getting in the way of the Conservative ideology. It is a fact that as long as human civilization has existed there have always been a segment of civilization who will put their beliefs above anything else and sometime react violently when presented with facts that challenge those beliefs. The old Soviet Union was brought down because the Communist Party of the Soviet Union chose to adhere to their ideology when ruling their country instead of modifying it or their policies to fit the facts on the ground. Now it is the turn of conservatives. That is one reason why I have stated that many modern Conservative Parties in the world are very much like the old CPSU. Ideology trumps all and that is the way they like it. Of course, the CPSU and the USSR should be a cautionary tale for modern Conservatives but that would require them to accept facts over their beliefs.

A third reason is spite, to "own the Liberals". If a liberal says it is true they believe it is false and if a liberal uses facts discovered by science to back up their arguments then science is part of the problem and should be ignored or even condemned.

The answer to my question is probably a combination of all three points in the post plus others I have not thought of. Regardless, that fact that many conservatives are so anti-science and anti-facts is troubling during these times. In the past, eras of ignorance were the result of the decline and fall of civilizations that value knowledge. This time the embrace of ignorance could be the cause of the fall of our current civilization.