Alot has been going on recently but I do not have the time to write a post about all of them so this post contains some relatively quick takes on what I have seen in recent days and weeks.
The Speech from the Throne was what I expected. I know that many were hoping for much more groundbreaking proposals, such as Universal Basic Income, but that is not how politics in this country works. Canada has always been a country were change is evolutionary not revolutionary. As well, starting the UBI process will take time and stability and minority governments are unstable by definition. UBI is on the radar of many now so it is probably a matter of when Canada will see some form of it instead of if. Until then I would say that Canadian progressives should be very happy that our current Federal government is the most progressive we have seen since Trudeau the Senior ran the show and the only real alternative to the Liberals, in the eyes of Canadians, is the Conservatives who are the most regressive political party ever seen in Canada. If you are progressively minded you should be doing whatever it takes to keep the Liberals in power.
The reaction of the Opposition Parties to the Speech was predictable. The Governor General had barely finished reading the speech before the Conservatives indicated that they would not support it. Some have stated that this indicates that they want an election but it indicates the exact opposite. If they wanted an election they could have taken their time. Instead they rushed to condemn the Speech right away because they wanted to send a message to the other Opposition Parties that if they did not want an election they would have to be the ones that support the government. The Conservatives did not want an election but they did not want to be put into a position of having to support the government to prevent one either. That is why they were so quick off the mark.
The well known Liberal pollster Angus Reid published a poll indicating that the government of Jason Kenney is now tied with the Opposition NDP in Alberta. If Angus Reid is indicating that then Mr. Kenney is in much bigger trouble than that poll is indicating. Jason Kenney is an extreme Conservative ideologue and he believed that winning government in Alberta, a province that has allowed itself to be repeatedly brutalized by Conservative governments, would allow him to push that ideology as far as his heart desired. That is the reason why he passed on trying to become the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. He would have had to temper his conservatism in that position. Many believed the election of Ms. Notley was just an expression of anger and a desire for temporary change while the provincial conservative parties got their shit together. That could be true but it could have also been an indication that Albertans do have limits to how far Conservative provincial politicians can push their Province to the right and maybe Mr. Kenney is going beyond those limits.
The measure of just how bored the media is in this country is the recent speculation of a snap election in Ontario, with two years left in Doug Ford's majority mandate. If he went into an election he would probably win and get himself four more years but there is also a chance that he could suffer the fate of David Peterson, a former Liberal premier, who called an early election to take advantage of some good polling and to avoid the fallout of a recession that was barreling down on Canadians at the time. He called the election and a few weeks later the Ontario NDP, lead by Bob Rae, formed a majority government. We are talking politics so anything can happen but do not expect the next Ontario election until 2022, which will be won by Doug Ford with a Liberals Official Opposition.
The Repubicans' horniness to fill that Supreme Court seat is the biggest indication that they do not expect to win the White House and that their majority in the Senate is in deep trouble too. If they believed otherwise they would be willing to take their time. Instead they want to do it while they still can. They will probably succeed but it will probably come at a cost in November and beyond. Female millennials and young women that followed them are very much of the opinion that they should be in control of their own bodies. If a conservative court takes that away from them then that just might motivate a very large block of voters to become much more active in using politics to take it back. That would be bad news for the Republicans, at all levels, for years and perhaps decades to come.
Donald Trump also does not expect to win the White House in November. If he did he would not be talking about contesting the results. If he loses as badly as current polling indicates that he is losing he will leave. I do not think even the Republicans and the conservatives members of the Supreme Court would be willing to undermine the Electoral College as much as they would have to in order to allow him to stay on after a clear loss by him. Of course, if it is close then that might change the dynamic a bit. However, if he does manage to stay on by means of some political shenanigans the midterms in 2022 will be very bad for the Republicans.
No comments:
Post a Comment