Monday, April 20, 2020

WTH is Andrew Scheer doing?

I really have to wonder what he is doing by being so obtuse with regard to having in-person meetings during an global pandemic.  It really is a no win strategy.  So why is he doing it?  As I have indicated politics is changing during this global pandemic and it would appear that Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives have not realized it.  Why?

I see four possibilities.

He really is as thick as some people believe.  However, that does not make alot of sense.  He did win the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada and you do not do that without having some smarts.  So his actions and words are calculated.

He is seeking revenge on the Conservative Party because they dropped him after the last election.  He may very well believe that he reduced the Liberals to a minority and added more seats for the Conservatives and that earned him another shot.  He is wrong of course.  As I have explained in this space before the seats he gained were traditional Conservative seats that only switched because of the general disgust with Stephen Harper in 2015.  As well, it was the Bloc that denied the Liberals a majority government.

He is trying to sabotage the electoral prospects for Mr. MacKay, the front runner for his replacement because Mr. MacKay stuck a knife into him just one week before election day in the Fall.

The problem with both of those reasons is we would be seeing a rebellion by the Conservative Party and the Conservative caucus if he was doing this.  He is a lame duck and they know it.  If they thought this was a personal vendetta against them or a possible replacement they would shut it down pretty quick.

Which, I believe, brings us to a very probable reason.  If you look at his actions and words and those of other Conservative mouth pieces on the Hill and in the media they are directed squarely at their base.  The interesting thing about their base is they are true believers and they do not tolerate the Liberals, full stop.  Therefore, they would not tolerate the Party cooperating with the Liberal government.  So, it is a bit of a case of the tail wagging the dog.  Of course, as late as last September the Conservatives could have ignored the base for a short time and then worked to get them back when things began to return to normal but the Fall election demonstrated that the core of the Conservative base is in Alberta and Saskatchewan and after the last election Wexit parties popped up.  I believe at least one has been certified in Alberta and they reduce the Conservatives room to maneuver.  The Wexit parties will be targeting traditional Conservative voters and they will be looking for openings offered by the CPC to exploit in order to do it.  Any hint of the CPC working with the Liberal government could be that opening.  So what we could be seeing is the Conservative Party attempting to shore up its Western base, potentially sacrificing votes in other part of the country. 

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