Well with week four now in the books the real election begins. The week of the debates are usually when non-partisan voters begin to pay attention to the election. So, all of the partisans for each of the parties are going to be joined, more and more, by the non-aligned swing voters in watching this election. Many will not make a final decision until the final week and days of the campaign but they will now begin to pay much closer attention as the days go on. They will be the ones who decide this election.
The Liberal campaign has been rather boring really. That is not a bad thing, by the way, during an election. Usually the things that excite during election campaigns are things political parties would like to avoid during them. So the fact the last couple of weeks have been largely uneventful for the Liberal campaign should make them very happy. As well, the Liberal campaign has been the most relaxed. I check the itinerary of each leader each day to see where they will be campaigning. One thing I noticed was that after the TVA debate Mr. Trudeau essentially took the next day off. He hung around Montreal, went to one event early in the morning and then called it a day. I thought it was because he would be traveling for the rest of the day but his itinerary for the next day was for a couple of events in Quebec City and in the Rimouski area of Quebec. I found that interesting because that is the middle of Conservative country in Quebec. All of the talking heads indicated that the BQ performance during the TVA debates made them a threat to the Liberals but they went to a Conservative area instead of trying to fend off the Bloc and they are still not trying to fend off the Bloc even now. After Quebec City Mr. Trudeau took the next day off. No events were planned. Contrast that to his opponents who ran around the country for all three of those days. They campaigned like crazy. I keep hearing that the Liberals are threatened by the Bloc, the NDP and the Greens. I keep hearing that their majority, maybe even their grip on power, is threatened. If so they seem to have a very lackadaisical reaction to this "fact". Maybe the public polls and the pundits that use them to make their prognostications are missing something.
The Conservatives had a brutal week in what can only be described as an increasingly brutal campaign. Last week ended with revelations that Mr. Scheer lied about his work history. Ok, that is silly and bush league but it should not be too big of a deal. Then it was revealed that he lied about his education and then it was revealed that he has been hiding that he is an American citizen for 15 years. Holy crap! Any one of those would make for a bad day on the campaign trail but it would only be one or two bad days. Having these revelations come out over the course of a single week during an election campaign has the potential of being fatal to that campaign. One is a lapse. Three is a pattern and if Conservatives and their allies believe said pattern will do no harm to Mr. Scheer they could be in for some profound disappointment. I do not know how much this will impact the campaign in the end but is was a lousy way for Mr. Scheer to spend week four of the campaign. Now going into week five it would appear he is getting questions about Trump operatives who may be working on his campaign. If those questions persist that could very well be it for him and the Conservatives.
The other parties are no longer relevant. This has always been a two party race and the last four weeks have proven that. The other parties might play spoiler in some local races but their impact will probably not be as profound as the talking head are currently pushing.
A short word on the debates. I do not watch them because they are pointless. They are organized by the media for the media. They do not have as much of an impact on the outcome of the election as the media would have us believe. I always like to remind people that Mr. Harper never won a single debate during his victorious election campaigns. He came in second to Mr. Martin in 2006 and Mr. Dion in 2008. He was trounced by Mr. Layton on 2011. Despite that he won all three campaigns and very convincingly in 2011.
So with 12 days until the election the non-partisan swing voters in the country will be deciding whether they want a change in government or not. That is the real ballot question. All of the other stuff the media talks about is only there to inform the answer to that question.
There is no certain way to determine which way they will jump. We will just have to wait until October 21 but my intellect and my gut are still telling me that they will jump to the Liberals in a big way, electing them to a majority government.
2 comments:
The idle chatter is that Trudeau went to Montreal last week on his day off for a private family gathering to honor the memory of his late brother. Shortly afterward was the anniversary of his father's death (who would have been 100 this year), and I believe he took some personal time to reflect on that too. His eldest son Xavier shares a birthday with Pierre as well, which happens to be two days before election night. I hope it proves to be a happy outcome for them all.
Now, around this same time as Trudeau took a personal day, the Conservatives (bolstered by a certain demented ex-Liberal war room staffer) spread a disgusting rumor about him being dismissed from his teaching job for sexual impropriety. Why did he really West Point Grey Academy in 2001? Once again, he wanted to go home to Montreal, devote time to his studies, and most importantly, grieve for his father and brother. While attending to his mother's mental breakdown.
This election is really bringing out the absolute worst underbelly of the human race. Canada (or segments of it) for some reason seems to have a latent desire to punch above its weight as to whatever its big brother downstairs is doing. So it doesn't surprise me in the least that Scheer and his orcs would not only hire Trump operatives, but dial the Trumpishness up to the nth degree.
Trudeau is the only decent one in the running. The rest are either self-serving, incompetent hacks who serve no purpose but to spoil ballots and raise their profiles (May and Singh), or craven bottom-feeders who serve no purpose but to defile the discourse (Scheer and Bernier). I haven't much to say about Blanchet other than he earned some respect in my view when he refused to answer questions from Rebel Media at one of the post-debate scrums. Law 21 is still shit but anything Rebel is arguably far worse.
Trudeau is a genuinely good person all-around who has mused about possibly resuming his teaching career once he is out of politics. So for the Conservatives to try and jeopardize that, and capitalize upon his private pain, is the lowest of the low. What speaks volumes is the mentality of voters who still support them for no other reason than selfishness and hate. They really are deplorables. "Rebel scum."
If things were not going well or if the Liberal campaign was detecting any issues we would be seeing it. For one thing, Mr. Trudeau would not have had a light day after the debate followed by a day off two days later. If things were not going well any family gathering would have gone on without him.
For that matter he would not have campaigned in a Conservative stronghold. Political parties in trouble play defence, campaigning in the areas where they are already strong, not in places where they are not. Hell, tomorrow morning he will be campaigning in Manotick, smack in the middle of Carleton Riding, which is currently held by Pierre Poilievre.
True it is in Ottawa, just across the bridge from Gatineau, where the French debate is taking place but there are plenty of ridings within an hours drive of here where he could be going. The fact he is going to Carleton is interesting, particularly since the Liberal candidate is running a very strong campaign this time and the demographics of that riding has changed significantly since 2015 and it continues to change.
We are getting to the time in the campaign where the various parties start to place the leader where he can do the most good, where his presence could help keep a seat in their column or where they may be able to take a seat away from one of the other parties. The fact that Mr. Trudeau campaigned in the Quebec City region last week and will be campaigning in Carleton tomorrow is interesting. Especially when you combine it with the various Proud sites pushing the "Fear the Sharia Law" bullshit today and Mr. Scheer's announcement at the border crossing used by Asylum seekers during the summer of 2018. Fear of Sharia Law and Immigrants, two goto issues to motivate the base, which bears the question why do they need to motivate the base at this stage of the game?
Post a Comment