So Maxime Bernier has publicly and spectacularly removed himself from the Conservative Party of Canada and he has indicated that he will form his own right-wing political party.
This really should not come as a surprise to anyone really. He was the front-runner throughout most of the Conservative leadership campaign, garnering the most votes on the first count, finally only losing the leadership by less than one percentage point after the prefered ballots were counted. There were rumblings of some irregularities during the voting and they were not put to bed by the party when they destroyed all of the ballots almost immediately after the winner of the leadership campaign was announced, preventing a recount.
Things settled down somewhat after the Conservative leadership vote although there were rumours of Mr. Bernier publishing a tell-all book about it that seemed to go nowhere after what appeared to be some back-room wheeling and dealing. This started to go sideways when Mr. Bernier was fired from the Conservative front bench, ostensibly for voicing his opposition to Canada's supply management system. What I found curious about that is he has never kept his opposition to that system a secret so why it suddenly became a problem last June was a mystery to me.
His crashing out of the Conservative Party this week solved that mystery. I believe not everything was all rainbows and sunshine within the Conservative Party since the leadership vote and it finally came to a head this week.
So how will this impact the next election?
Right off it needs to be stated that the most probable outcome of the 2019 election was a Liberal Majority government before the Conservative implosion. I will not go into the reason why at this time.
The events of the last couple of days increases that probability regardless of how this all shakes out.
If Mr. Bernier flames out and just disappears from the Canadian political scene Andrew Scheer will still be saddled with the burden of being the leader that could not keep his party together. Mr. Bernier had been a stalwart of the Conservative Party for years, he was extremely popular with many Conservatives and he is the most popular conservative politician in Quebec. Losing him is a big blow to Mr. Scheer's credibility and if he is not around it is an open question of whether the Conservatives win any seats on Quebec in 2019. Virtually every Conservative elected in Quebec attached themselves to Mr. Bernier's coattails in order to win their elections. With him gone and with no obvious replacement for him in the Conservative caucus the Conservatives could be in tough, in Quebec, in 2019.
If Mr. Bernier follows through on his assertion that he will form his own political party it could potentially spell political disaster for the Conservatives.
He has set himself a very daunting task of forming a political party with 338 candidates in just over a year. I doubt he can do it but he could probably find enough candidates to fill out the ranks in Quebec and perhaps Ontario. In all probability that would spell the end of Conservative hopes in Quebec at the very least and it could spell the end of Conservative hopes in both Ontario and Quebec. In both provinces a Bernier lead party would probably split the Conservative vote allowing the Liberals to walk away with many additional seats in both provinces. As I have stated here the Conservative movement is very weak in the country, even when it is united behind one party. If the movement splits that weakness is increased.
If Mr. Bernier does pull off forming his own party with a full slate of candidates then the Conservatives would be in deep trouble everywhere. A Bernier lead party would just need to siphon off 5 percentage points from the Conservatives and it would be bad news for them. Any more than 5 points and things would only get worse. Fifteen points and it is conceivable that the CPC only wins its Alberta bastion and a handfull of other seats in the West.
Many Conservatives, both the politicians and the Conservative cheerleaders in the media, have been downplaying the impact of Mr. Bernier's departure. However, watching them they seem to be doing so through gritted teeth. They are spinning this as best they can but I am certain that many of them do not actually believe their own spin. The events of the past few days have damaged the Conservative Party. Only the fullness of time will reveal to what extent it has been damaged and whether that damage will be short-lived or enduring.
No comments:
Post a Comment