A Future Triple Whammy

There are three situations that will have a great impact on Western society and according to what I have read all three of them will peak in about 25 years.

The first situation is that automation will destroy more than 50% of the existing jobs in the Western world by about 2040 to 2050.  That is the net loss after taking into account the jobs that will be created in the same time period.

The second situation is, if current trends continue, the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy by about 2040.  I have written here many times that when that happens it will have a profound impact on the Western economies and the societies underpinned by them.

It is believed that the greatest effects of climate change will begin to be felt around 2040, 2050 at the latest.

Just one of these three events will cause a tremendous amount of disruption within the Western world.  The negative impacts of any one of these events would put horrendous pressure, not just on Western governments but on their very democratic foundations.  It is conceivable that one or more of the Western democracies could fall as a result of the widespread unrest that would be generated by the impacts of just one of these events.

So, you have to ask what is to become of the Western democracies and societies when they could very well be faced by more than one of these events, maybe even all three?

My own feeling is none would survive as true democracies.  They may have some last vestiges of democracy but fundementally all of the democracies will fade away to be replaced by something else.

We are currently feeling the beginnings of the impacts of all three situations and it is leading to widespread unrest.  That unrest has to lead to the rise of demogogues and more authoritarian measures taken by governments to maintain "order".  So far, they have directed those authoritarian measures at people from outside of their own societies but once the security apparatuses, which are currently directed at outsiders, becomes securely entrenched within their respective countries they will be turned inwards.

I have written here before that the current ruling elites in the West see the dangers posed by the three situations I described above.  I have also stated that they can deal with this by reducing income and wealth inequality or they can handle it by concentrating economic and political power into their hands and use force to maintain order.  Currently, the approach being taken by all of the Western democracies is the latter.  That could change in the next decade or so but I have a sneaking suspicion that it will not.  My fear is actually that it will accelerate.

Being north of 50 I will be around to see the transition of our democracies into authoritarian societies but I will probably be gone before the transition is complete.  It is our children and grandchildren who will be the most impacted by the fallout of climate change, automation and the rise of China.