Who is going to win the October 19 election?

This post is inspired by a conversation I had with a colleague who also happens to be a Liberal supporter.  We had a good noon hour conversation.

The short answer to the question is ask me the same question on October 20.

However, the key question between now and then is whether the desire for a change of government will hit "critical mass".

If no, then the Conservatives will probably win the election, possibly winning a majority mandate considering the apparent split in the anti-Conservative vote.

If yes, then the Conservatives lose, by how much being the only mystery.

However, that then begs the question of which party Canadians will choose to replace the Conservatives.

Will Canadians stick to their 150 year old habit of alternating between a Conservative Party and a Liberal Party?  Or will they take the historic step of electing an NDP federal government for the first time?

We will know for certain on October 20 but my sense is the "throw-the-bums-out" sentiment is not as strong as it needs to be, at the present time, for me to be convinced that the Conservatives will lose the election.  That could change during the campaign but as of now they have a reasonable shot at winning a fourth election.

If they do not then I would say the Liberals would be their replacement.  The NDP certainly are having a good couple of months but I have serious doubts that those who are telling pollsters that they support the NDP are saying so with the degree of conviction necessary to essentially change a 150 year old political dynamic.  Further, I am not sensing a real enthusiasm with the idea of an NDP government.  In fact, from the people I speak to, and this is by no means scientific, there seems to be some trepidation at the prospect of an federal NDP government.  

Considering that, I find it doubtful that if Canadians want a change in government that they will opt for such a radical change.

But like I said at the beginning we will know for certain on October 20.