Thursday, July 03, 2008

The Green Shift Plan: So far so good

Decima released another poll today showing that the Liberals are still rock solid in their support amongst Canadians. That is the third one since the release of the Green Shift Plan to indicate that. The Liberals are not losing any ground but they are not gaining any either.

This is interesting because this particular poll was taken at or just after the much publicised objections of the Premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan and the three Northern Premiers. As well, it was taken after the small problems with Green Shift the company and the media's playing up of that story. It could have been expected that those events would have caused some erosion.

So what can we conclude from this. Nothing definitive. However, the preliminary conclusion we can draw from this is the Green Shift Plan has made a good first impression and quite frankly that is all Liberals could have expected or wished for upon its release. It is a great start for the Green Shift Plan. (Now build on it!!)

About the poll itself, Decima states that the Conservatives could gain support again now that the summer is here. Well, duh!! It is called incumbant advantage and I actually expect Conservative support to climb somewhat in the coming weeks. It will have nothing to do with anything they do or anything the Liberals do it will just be a factor of them being the government at a time when folks are not really thinking about politics. So, when it happens, Liberals please do not overreact.

As well, I found it interesting that the Conservatives have lost support on the 613 area code. Since the 2006 election they have had pretty good support in Eastern Ontario. When much of the rest of Ontario was turning their back on the Conservatives their support in Eastern Ontario was steady. The fact this poll indicates that support may be eroding could be significant.

Of course, the number of interviews for this geographic strata for this poll is probably between 30 and 50 respondents so we cannot put too much trust in the estimates for them. It would have a double digit MOE so you cannot read too much into the estimates for this area.

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