Sunday, September 30, 2007

A Fall Election is Unlikely

There has been a great deal of time and effort spent talking about what the Liberals are going to do with the Throne Speech. Are they going to vote against it and trigger an election while they are in their weakened position? Are they going to do something else to prevent the government from falling, thus making themselves look weaker?

Both questions are irrelevent because the Bloc will probaby prop up the government in October. The reason is simple. By most accounts Stephen Harper is going to put something in the Throne Speech about limiting the spending powers of the Federal Government in areas of provincial responsibility.

There is no way the Bloc will vote against such an idea. Nationalists in Quebec have been demanding that for years and a Party that purports to have the interests of the Nationalists in mind will not take any actions to deny it to them. If it did it would be handing the Conservatives a very convenient bat with which to beat the Bloc in any election that immediately followed.

In short, voting against limiting Federals spending powers in Quebec is a short-cut to political oblivion for the Bloc so they will find a way to support a Throne Speech that contains any announcements of such limits.


Blogger Jason Bo Green said...

Hmmm Ottlib... quite interesting. I admit, I've taken it for granted that Duceppe will go at his word in his "non-negotiable" demands - yet I completely see your reasoning here. And it's not like it's unheard of for politicians to go back on what they said.

Fascinating. You're very possibly dead-on right.

September 30, 2007 9:15 PM  

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