Iran is playing a game but probably not the one we think

I have had a very enlightening and stimulating debate with Shoshana today on her blog.

In it she asks the question of why Hamas and Hezbollah are taking the actions they are taking, and she is stating that Iran is involved somehow.

I did not address her question in my comments on her blog so I will address them here.

In all likelyhood, Iran is involved in the current crisis in the Middle East, because it is no secret that they are big financial backers of both Hamas and Hezbollah.

So why would they begin rocking the boat now?

I believe the possible answer is four fold.

First, the reactionary forces that now control Iran are playing the oldest game in the book. Not the usual stuff we see between Israel and the Palestinians but the good old fashion power game.

The current reactionary President of Iran did not win by much. The forces of moderation within that country are moving to replace him at the next opportunity and there is not much that he can do about it domestically. So he could be turning to one of the tried and true methods of holding on to power; create a conflict with an outside force, especially one that is widely despised by your population.

How to do that? Have your vassals attack Israel. Their reaction is usually quite predictable, as it is today, and keep goading them until they overreact. Hell, if you are lucky they may even attack Iran directly. That would be mana from Heaven. If warplanes sporting the Star of David are seen over Tehran dropping bombs on it the forces of moderation will have no chance of ousting the reactionary forces from power for at least a decade.

Second, the Iranians want nuclear weapons and the US and Israel wants to stop them. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that it is only a matter of time before one or both of these states use military force to do so, especially since Iran is not interested in talking about stopping their program.

So if they know that it is going to happen at some point, they would want to make it happen when it is most convenient to them. That way they can be somewhat prepared for it and mitigate any damage that is caused to their nuclear weapons program. In addition, any attack would probably be a one shot deal, as a result of reason three below, so they would then be free to continue their nuclear weapons program relatively unmolested. Combine that with the reactionary forces likely staying in control for the next decade or so and Iran is well on its way to realizing its goal of joining the nuclear club.

Three, the nuclear facilities are probably well manned and any attack that is designed to destroy them will result in a large number of civilian casualties. Pictures of those broken bodies will create a backlash against the US and Israel, including from Russia and China.

Fourth, the higher oil prices leading up to , through and after a strike would bring in enough extra revenue that they will be able to pay off their vassals for their sacrifice, have money to replace the nuclear technology they will inevitably lose and not upset their fiscal situation.

Two secondary benefits:

Any wedge that they drive between the US and the states of Russia and China would be to their advantage when if comes to replacing their lost nuclear technology. As well, any wedge could convince one or both to give the Iranian nuclear program the political cover it needs for its completion.

Any attack on Iran by Israel could destroy any progress the US has made with the Shiites in Iraq because it would be political suicide for any Iraqi Shia to even be perceived as being friendly to a state that supported an attack on a country that has a largely Shiite population.