Another Trudeau Scandal

Many in the media are all aflutter because Justin Trudeau has stopped announcing his itinerary and has resorted to just showing up at places. These media folks claim that Justin Trudeau is lying about his whereabouts and hiding from Canadians.

That's it. That's the final straw. The only solution is for Mr. Trudeau to resign.

Of course none of these media types points out that Mr. Trudeau is the first politician to announce his whereabouts at all and that includes all of the past PMs and current politicians such as Mr. Poilievre. Mr. Trudeau made the conscious decision to buck past practice but now that he has decided to stop doing that it is a "scandal".

As well, none of these media types mention that the political environment today is much more toxic that it was in 2015. Hell it is more toxic that it was in 2021 when there were people throwing rocks at the PM during the election of that year. Although, many in the media have argued that "rocks" is a misrepresentation of the objects that were thrown. They were actually "pebble". Schmucks.

It is a fact that a few years ago some guy rammed the gates of Rideau Hall, probably to do harm to the PM, but he was stopped by security. The media at that time played down that aspect of the event instead focusing on that fact the guy was a "happy sausage maker". Really, this guy just drove from Manitoba to Ottawa, with a pickup truck full of firearms and rammed the gates of the Official Residence of the Governor General and the Prime Minister because he wanted a fulsome discussion on the finer points of the government's environmental policies with the PM.

It is also a fact that this summer two men were charged with threatening the PM. 

Finally, Mr. Bexte ambushed the PM on a beach while he was on vacation with his kids. Bexte is an idiot and a poseur but he is harmless. He would not have the guts to actually try to harm the PM but there are others out there who would. Incidentally, Mr. Bexte must have been disappointed. He always has people there to record his stupidity and in this case he was probably hoping that they would get a juicy recording of the PM's security detail wrestling him to the ground. That did not happen and then the PM schooled him when Mr. Bexte asked his questions. 

With all of this it is no wonder Mr. Trudeau stopped announcing his itinerary in advance. His security detail probably recommended it. Indeed, I would bet that they recommended it awhile ago and he finally decided to take that advice. Good on him and I hope he continues to do so. It is bad security practice to tell those that might want to do you harm where you are going to be in advance.

Another aspect of this "scandal" is the PM has been showing up at places where there are large crowds to "give the impression that he is more popular than he really is." While it is true he is showing up at these events it is also true that no other Federal leader is doing the same thing. Both Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh could do the same thing. The question is why are they not doing so. Mr. Poilievre in particular is supposed to be running away from the PM in the polls. You would think he would take every opportunity to show that popularity by spontaneously intermingling with ordinary Canadians. Imagine the fawning by our media if there were pictures similar to the ones that came out last week of the PM at the opening of the CNE and other events. That is not happening and I would love to hear someone ask the reason for that.

The Ukrainians Open Up a Second Front

It has been expected for weeks that the Ukrainians would launch a summer offensive but it was also expected that they would launch it at the static front in Eastern Ukraine. Instead they attached North into Russia itself.

A couple of things.

First, the fact the Ukrainians could launch the offensive and encounter little to no resistance is a testament to Russian hubris. They firmly believed that the Ukrainians would never have the temerity to actually launch ground operations into Russia itself so they never actually defended against such a possibility. Make no mistake, if they had the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Region would have been nothing more than a raid in force, ending almost as soon as it began.

This could change the strategic situation on the ground somewhat. With this incursion the Russians are going to have to spread their troops a little thinner to prevent a repeat of it after the Ukrainians finally withdraw. Up until now the Russians could concentrate their forces in the Donbass region, effectively outnumbering the Ukrainians at the point of attack. Now they are going to have to put more troops on the other borders with Ukraine. Where are those troops going to come from? They will either come from Eastern Ukraine for from Russia itself. In the first instance that will lead to the weakening of the Russian lines in the East and in the second instance it will lead to less reinforcements being available to replace the losses they have been experiencing in the the war of attrition taking place in the east. Either way, things just got harder for Russian commanders.

The question that this incursion does not answer is whether the Ukrainians, with their superior equipment, training and morale, can outlast the Russians, with their greater number of soldiers and their total lack of concern about casualties. That has been the question of this war since it began.

Democratic Party VP Choice, Bots and still no election speculation

VP Harris made a decent choice with Governor Walz. I still believe she should have chosen someone a little more centrist or slightly right-of-centre to offset her slight left-of-centre instincts but the Governor is a middle-aged white guy, with an honourable military service record and who likes to do "manly" things like hunting and fishing. That should allow those who do not like Mr. Trump but who would be uncomfortable with the prospect of a woman of colour as President to feel a little better about it. The whole point is to not provide them with a reason to stay home in November. She might have accomplished that.

For now, ignore the polls. It is predictable that Ms. Harris would receive a bump in them when she took over the nomination and named a running mate. They will receive another bump after the convention and then the hard slogging to November will commence. Do not bank on any bumps being permanent.

So the Conservatives in Canada got into a little trouble because thousands of bots wrote glowing reports on his visit to Kirkland Lake. That made me laugh considering how small that town is. However, it would also seem to indicate that these bots acted without the knowledge of the CPC as they would probably have been able to predict that having more bots than the actual population of Kirkland Lake mentioning his visit would raise eyebrows. This still warrants an investigation of who owns these bots and their motivation for releasing them into our politics. Foreign actors are interfering in our politics more and more and I believe something more substantial than the inquiries we have seen so far into this issue needs to be done. A full blown Royal Commission, with broad powers to call witnesses and access evidence, would be very useful. 

It has been more than a year since the CPC took a double digit lead over the Liberals in the public polls yet no one is suggesting that we will have an election before the Fall of 2025 despite the fact the Liberals are leading a minority government. Remember, election speculation is a favourite pass time of our media. Hell, they have been talking about Doug Ford calling a snap election even though we just went through a provincial election in 2022. So why no election speculation when the Federal Liberals have been trailing the CPC by double digits for a year or so? Maybe, and I am just spit balling here, those polls are full of crap and the actual political situation at the federal level is much different from what the public polls are saying. Maybe all involved, the political parties and the media, have access to data they are not sharing with the public that is showing a much different situation. It is absolutely unprecedented that a minority government has survived more than a year while trailing its main opponent in the public polls. Something is just not adding up.

VP Harris, Do Not Choose Pete Buttigieg as your Running Mate

In my previous post I asserted that the nomination of Ms. Harris as the Presidential candidate for the Democrats will make them winning the White House more difficult than if Mr. Biden was the nominee. The reason is I believe that there are many who may really  dislike the idea of Donald Trump being President again who are also uncomfortable with the idea of a woman of colour being President. That could result in many of them staying home on election day, particularly in some of the states she needs to carry to win the election.

If she now turns around and selects an openly gay man as her running mate she can probably kiss the White House goodbye and the Democrats would probably lose both Houses of Congress as well.

While having those two running together is the proverbial wet dream for progressives on both sides of the border those very same progressives have to remember that not everybody thinks like them. Racism and homophobia are still very strong in the US, even amongst voters who identify as Democrat, so having both a visible minority and a gay person running together, along with the Presidential candidate being a woman could be a recipe for disaster.

It is unfortunate but that is the hand she has been dealt.

I am willing to accept the idea of such a ticket attracting alot of new young voters but history has demonstrated that while young voters may be becoming more and more involved in politics they still do not vote in numbers to really effect outcomes. So, if the Democrats are counting on the youth vote to act as a counterweight to those more dependable voters who would be uncomfortable with a woman of colour as President and a gay man as Vice President they could be in for great disappointment.

So please Ms. Harris, choose a middle aged, white guy, who is just a little right of centre as your running mate. Yes I know that they are already overrepresented in politics but they still reflect a sizable proportion of your electorate (and ours in Canada) so you cannot ignore their concerns and expect to win.

The Democrats just made their life a whole lot harder

An alternate title for this post could also be: "Is the US Ready to Elect a Woman of Colour as President?

As I stated in a previous post the election in November was going to be about Donald Trump and whether Americans wanted to have him back as President. Although he was up against an old man in Joe Biden I believed that Americans would again reject Donald Trump for the highest office in the land. More people hate Mr. Trump than love him and that would have carried the Democrats as long as they could bring out their vote. Yes, Joe Biden is an old man but, to be brutally honest, he is a white old man so many people who prefer such as President could safely plant their vote there if they were inclined to vote against Donald Trump.

Now that advantage for the Democrats is gone. There are many Americans who dislike Donald Trump, who would not vote for him, who would also dislike the idea of a woman of colour as President. This would be particularly true in some of the states the Democrats have to carry in order to win, Georgia being a very good example. That is unfortunate but that does not make it any less true. BTW, one of the strikes against Hillary Clinton was she is a woman. That was not the only thing that went against her but do not be so naïve to think that it was not a factor. 

I do not believe that those who hate Donald Trump and who would be uncomfortable with Ms. Harris as President will switch their votes. However, they may just decide to stay home. I do believe that the GOTV efforts of the Democrats in several key states will much more challenging. 

I believe that VP Harris would probably make a good president and looking at her resume she is not any less qualified than some of the other candidates who have won the presidency in the last 30 years but you cannot deny that her gender and colour will be a factor for a significant number of voters come November. I am not saying she cannot win but her path to victory is probably narrower than Joe Biden's would have been, the recent hype about his age notwithstanding.

The election was always going to come down to voter turnout. Whichever side is most successful in getting their voters to come out is going to win. The Democrats just reduced their chances of being the side that accomplishes that task.

Who Would Replace Donald Trump for the MAGA Crowd?

I have had this question percolated in my head for some time and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on the weekend caused it to gel.

The simple fact is even before the attempt it could be said that Donald Trump is an old, over weight man who could go at any time by natural causes. The same is certainly true of Joe Biden, except he is not over weight. Kind of makes you wonder just how broken politics is in the US that it cannot put up candidates that have more than an even chance living to 2028 but that is the topic for another post.

So when he goes what happens to MAGA? It is a fact that MAGA's only loyalty is to Donald Trump. It really is his own personal cult of personality. They have absolutely no loyalty to the Republican Party just like he has no loyalty to it. They only care about Donald Trump.

So when he goes is there someone that can replace him? I know that some would try but I believe there is no one who would be able to take his place. Love him or hate him but Donald Trump is a larger than life figure, which is why he has been able to get away with all of the shit he has been getting away with since before he entered politics. So although there are many like him who would share his populist political outlook and who would be more than willing to lie their ass off for political advantage they would not have the same snake oil salesman vibe, being able to work up a crowd like Donald Trump. 

And really, a large number of MAGA are only involved in politics because of Donald Trump. When he goes so will many of them.

So when he goes the Republican Party will be in some trouble. They have completely alienated moderate Americans by embracing Mr. Trump and many MAGA's will turn away from politics. That would be a large number of voters not voting for Republicans. Then again, many of those who hate Donald Trump, who have only voted that last few elections because of their dislike of him, may decide to abandon politics as well. 

It could be a wash but I believe it would not be. Republicans are going to be more impacted by his disappearance  and for a couple of elections the Republicans would have to go through a period of adjustment to recapture more moderate Americans. Or not. After all, Donald Trump is just the logical extension of the Tea Party movement that took over the Republican Party a couple of decades ago. In all likelihood, the departure of Donald Trump would provide the Tea Partiers the opportunity to retake the Republican Party.

People Usually Vote Against Someone not for Someone

That is a simple fact.

I know several people who are Conservative supporters and all of them do not really like Pierre Poilievre. Indeed, I heard one of them call him a f&*%King asshole a few months ago. However, most of these folks absolutely hate Justin Trudeau so they will overlook the general assholery of Mr. Poilievre if they can get rid of PMJT.

I bring this up because of all of the wingeing over Joe Biden's debate performance last week. The doom and gloom is misplaced. I can pretty much guarantee that the reason he became president is not because the voters liked him and were inspired by him. He became president because people hated Donald Trump and wanted him gone. 

Donald Trump is a polarizing figure. Those who love him really love him but those who hate him really hate him. Unfortunately for him there are more people who hate him than love him. That was proven in 2016 and in 2020. I imagine that it will be true in 2024. He has not done anything in the last four years to reach out to those who hate him, in fact, he did the exact opposite. So the biggest threat to Joe Biden's bid for a second term is not voters turning away from him to Donald Trump but people who voted for him in 2020 deciding to stay home. Donald Trump will probably not gain any more votes than he gained in 2016 and 2020. All the Democrats need to do is convince those who hate Donald Trump to come out and vote and they will win.

In the Canadian context this voter motivation is the reason why Conservatives and their media allies are trying so damned hard to get Canadians to hate Justin Trudeau and have him resign. After all, there are countless examples of people voting against a party over voting for one. I can assure you that very few people felt happy voting for the Harper or Ford Conservatives or the Trudeau Liberals. Voters were just voting against people and governments they really did not like and in those cases enough people did so to bring about a change in government.

Judging by the increasingly shrill and strident calls for his resignation by the media I would say that they are not succeeding in turning Canadians against PMJT. Certainly, there is a small minority of Canadians who hate him for many reasons but they have always hated him and I would guess that their number is not increasing fast enough to the liking of Conservatives. As well, I would like to point out that the media is focusing exclusively on trying to get Canadians to hate Justin Trudeau but no one is trying to get Canadians to like Pierre Poilievre, including Mr. Poilievre himself. They are content to keep preaching to their base while working diligently to get Canadians to hate Mr. Trudeau. 

Yes, yes, yes, I know what the polls are saying but I also know that polls never tell the whole story and in many cases the story they do tell is often wrong. 

By the time the election rolls around in 2025 the Conservatives might be successful in their efforts to turn Canadians against Justin Trudeau, or that might just happen organically as a result of the sheer amount of time the Liberals will have been the government. However, at the moment, judging by the actions of the Conservatives and the media, they have not done that yet.

If they have not been able to do it and if Conservative opponents can be somewhat successful in reminding voters of why they do not like the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre then the next election will not be the shoe in for the CPC that most political commentators are saying it will be.

So in 2025 the ballot question is going to be who are the voters going to be more against? I am not even going to attempt a guess at this point.