Immigration Levels Returning to the Mean

Recently the Federal government announced that they were reducing immigration levels. Upon further examination the reduction is essentially to the historical mean.

Nothing really out of the ordinary right?

Not according to our media. Of course, they indicated that this is a reversal or a pivot away from recklessly high immigration levels and the result of political pressure on the Liberals and a change in attitudes of Canadians towards immigration. 

What a load of crap.

Immigration levels in this country are not pulled from the ass of any government. They are arrived at after extensive consultations by the government with the provinces, the business community, demographers and other stakeholders. They are designed to allow Canada's population growth to be sufficient to allow younger Canadians to replace retiring Canadians in the job market. This is because the Canadian fertility rate is way below replacement level so if we did not bring in immigrants our population and the pool of people looking for work would decrease, leading to all sorts of negative economic outcomes for the country, including lower profits and falling stock markets.

As well, remember that immigrants are not refugees or asylum seekers. Canadian immigration official look for people with specific skills from those seeking to enter Canada. If they want to come to Canada they have to prove they are able to work here and get a job very soon after they arrive.

The reason why there was a spike in immigration levels in the last three years is all because of the pandemic. After the worst of the pandemic was over everything spiked; aggregate demand, prices, wages and other economic indicators. What also spiked was the demand for labour. Many of you with decent memories probably remember all of the stories about a labour shortage immediately after the worst of the pandemic was over. The government responded by increasing immigration levels.

Well, although COVID is still stalking the land, the pandemic is over and everything is returning to what it was pre-COVID. We are seeing it with inflation and we are now seeing it with unemployment. The labour shortage of three years ago has abated so immigration levels do not need to be so high. Thus, we see their return to the historical mean.

By the way, these immigration levels are very similar to the ones the Harper government had during its tenure and that is why, if you are hoping another Conservative government will further reduce immigrations levels, you are in for a big disappointment. Simply put, big business will not let them.

The government continues to do what it is supposed to; govern. And governing means looking at the current situation and adjusting policies to address any issues. That's the job and this government is just getting on with doing it.

Provincial Elections

In the past week there have been two provincial general elections and the results of both surprised virtually everyone. That is strange because we have a whole industry, the polling industry, that is supposed to provide us with an idea of what is happening leading up to an election. In both cases they were way off. Kind of makes you wonder about the federal polling we have been seeing. Are their estimates accurate? Probably not.

Many are trying to read the entrails of both elections to guess how a federal general election might turn out. I would caution people from reading too much into the results for the federal level. This country is famous for voters voting one way federally only to have the same voters vote the exact opposite provincially. 

All that being said there are some encouraging signs. Blaine Higgs won a minority government six years ago and during that time he seemed like a moderate conservative. Then he won a majority government, governed from the far-right, and was crushed in the next election. A government only lasting 6 years in this country is a rarity. 

The results in BC is the biggest surprise. The incumbent NDP government had been in power for about a decade. Like all governments, they had a lifespan and like all governments they were running on borrowed time after eight years. Considering these facts the BC conservative party should have swept to power. Instead, as of writing this blog entry, they are tied. Either one could come out on top but regardless of which one does they will not have a strong majority either way.

Overall, the results of these elections shows us just what Canadians feel about the far right. The far-right Premier of New Brunswick lost big, including his seat. The BC conservatives, lead by an extreme right politician could not score a decisive victory over a 10 year incumbent government. That should give more than one conservative politician in this country pause, considering they have been drifting further and further right for about two decades.

While I will reiterate my caution about reading too much into these elections' impact at the federal level the one is BC is interesting. Like the federal level, a progressive government, long in the tooth, was up against a conservative opposition. That conservative opposition ran on far right policies (and continuously and blatantly lied) and they could not "bring it home". Kind of makes you wonder if something similar will happen when the writ is finally dropped at the federal level considering the parallels between the BC election and the probable federal election will be stark.

I am not certain how the next federal election will turn out but these two provincial elections seem to indicate that governing and campaigning from the far right has limited appeal to a significant number of voters, making being elected that much more difficult. (Except in Alberta where voters there seem to have this perverse belief that they have to punish themselves.)