COVID Just is not Scary

I was recently surprised. I personally know three people who are against taking the COVID-19 vaccine and against vaccine mandates.

The first guy did not surprise me. He hates Justin Trudeau so it was inevitable that having his government urge Canadians to take the vaccine would elicit a desire to defy such advice. This guy might catch the virus and kill himself, his wife and/or his two teenaged daughters but in his mind he is owning Justin Trudeau and the Liberals so it is worth it.

The second person surprised me a bit but then again I do not know him well. We met a few times before the pandemic hit and he seemed reasonable. It turns out I am wrong. He has bought into the QAnon conspiracy about the vaccines completely. I guess he is just smarter than the rest of us, or at least he believe he is.

The third person surprised me completely. I have known this person for over 20 years. They are educated, intelligent and well traveled. If anybody would have told me at the beginning of the pandemic that this person would be against the vaccine I would have said "No way". However, this person truly believes that the risk of death from the vaccine is higher than the risk of death from contracting COVID. They are wrong of course and all of the data demonstrates that but there is no reasoning with this person.

This has lead me to question the reason why there has been resistance to vaccines and for those who resist hold a very ardent position against them. There really is no reasoning with them.

Part of it is politics but except for the first person I mentioned none of these three are overly political. And even with the first person his politics only extends to hating Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. There is nothing else to his politics.

One guess is the nature of the COVID virus is a big part of the reason why so many people are against taking the vaccine. It really is not that scary. Although the virus is easily contracted only 10% of people who contract it become seriously ill, meaning they need hospitalization, and only 3% of people die from it. That is extremely low for a virus. It is significantly higher for influenza and all of us are familiar with it so COVID is not that big of a concern. In short, may antivaxxers firmly believe that if they contract the virus they will be fine. 

I would imagine things would be different if COVID was scarier. Imagine if it had been discovered early on that men, who contracted the virus and even showed mild systems, had a 50/50 chance of suffering permanent and irreversible erectile dysfunction. I am certain that would have profoundly changed the dynamic of the last two years. Men may risk death but they will not risk Willy.

Then again, if the virus would have been a little more dangerous things would also be different. Say the virus makes 50% of the people who contract it seriously ill and it kills 10%. Further all of those who survive the virus are hideously scarred and at least half of those are also crippled and/or blinded. Of course, I just described Small Pox, which was eradicated because everybody was REQUIRED to receive a Small Pox vaccine without exception. At the time no one protested because Small Pox was and is a very scary virus.

That does not describe COVID so the antivaxxers can avoid receiving the vaccine and they have a high probability that they will not suffer serious consequences for their stupidity. Not as high as those of us who are fully vaccinated but still worth the risk in their minds. 

Of course, viruses mutate. COVID could mutate itself out of existence or it could mutate itself into something much more dangerous and the longer this pandemic goes on the greater the odds of either outcome. It could go either way but just imagine a virus with the illness and death rates of Small Pox and the ease of transmission of COVID. A truly scary prospect and if it comes to pass those antivaxxers will probably change their tune but it would be much too late for many of them.

The Collapse of Bitcoin Does not Make it a Ponzi Scheme

First of all I do not own any Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency and I have never owned any. So, I have no personal stake in them. I do however strive to find the truth in any situation and what I have been hearing about cryptocurrencies, from people who should know better, has left me scratching my head.

As I stated in a previous post, cryptocurrencies are a commodity, created out of the virtual world that has grown out of our increasingly integrated civilization. An integration that has been facilitated by information technology and the growing quantity of data being produced by us on a daily basis. 

Like all commodities it is going through a down period, a so called Bear market. That is not unique to cryptocurrencies and it is not a surprise. The reaction to it on the other hand is something of a surprise. In 2008 the price of oil hit the $180/barrel mark and stayed above $150/barrel for quite some time. It became conventional wisdom that it would stay there for over a decade it not longer. Instead, it collapsed to below $100/ barrel just before COVID-19 hit us in 2020, which promptly caused it to collapse to less than $50/barrel. At the time, you may recall, there were tankers full of the stuff that could not be unloaded because no one wanted it. At no time during that period did anybody state that the oil commodities market was a scam, as a result of the price collapse. There are those who believe it is a scam for other reasons but that is another story.

Yes, cryptocurrencies are not something you can touch, smell and feel, like oil, but neither is data. Like data, cryptocurrencies have an intangible quality to them but that does not take away from the reality of their existence. Remember, cryptocurrency is to data, what oil is to physical material. 

So, cryptocurrency and the commodity markets that go along with it will remain. As with other commodities markets a sharp downturn into Bear market territory will clear out of the casual and amateur traders, leaving it to the professionals. Many of them will see the decrease in prices as an opportunity to buy so that they can reap the profits when the market goes up again, which always happens in commodity markets.

Crypto is not a scam, a scheme or a con. It is a virtual commodity traded on a commodity market. Like all other commodities markets the crypto market is subject to Bull and Bear markets and when they happen it is just the normal course of business. 

Manipulate and Distract

One constant activity of our ruling class is their efforts to manipulate and/or distract those that they rule. It is constant and it is necessary because they have been screwing it up so badly for the last 30 or so years that ordinary people are noticing. Ruling classes screw things up for those they rule all of the time. It is the state of nature but usually they do not screw it up so badly those they screw notice. That is no longer the case hence the more determined efforts to manipulate and/or distract.

This line of thought was created by the kerfuffle that rose up a few days ago when it was revealed that a Global Affairs official had attended a garden party at the Russian Embassy. There is a perfectly valid reason why they would do that and we will get to that in a minute.

However, the reason why it became an issue has nothing to do with Russia or its war with Ukraine. If you seriously believe our ruling class really cares about either of these issues then you are lacking in critical thinking skills, aka, you are an idiot. The professionals at Global Affairs Canada care but that is because it is their job.

The real reason why this became an issue is because one of the major factions of our ruling class is going through a really tough time right now.

The hearings in Washington are laying bare just how far reaching the sedition went on January 6, 2021 and some of that is spilling over into Canada where we had our own January 6 moment, which dominated the news for three weeks in February of this year. I am not convinced the public inquiry into invoking the Emergencies Act will be as harmful to the Conservative Party of Canada as many progressives hope but the possibility is certainly there and they are acting like they know that fact.

The erstwhile front runner for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada is proving himself, almost on a daily basis, to be wholly unqualified for the position of being the leader of a political party, let alone the leader of a government, yet it looks like no one can catch him which may make winning the next election very difficult for the Conservatives.

Despite their best efforts, with the full throated support of the media, the Conservatives have been completely ineffective in even making Justin Trudeau sweat, let alone actually threatening his government. The Liberal government gets longer in the tooth daily but it is the Conservatives who are becoming unhinged these days.

Hence the distraction of a garden party. THE HORROR. 

Of course, it might not matter in the long-run and the Conservatives could still come out on top because ordinary people have proven that they are easily manipulated by the ruling class again, and again and again but it must still be disconcerting to see just how ineffective they have been in the last few months.

As for the garden party. The issue that the world has is with the Putin government not Russia or its people. Eventually the Putin era will come to an end, either because someone will remove him or mother nature will demand he be "returned to the soil" as all of us are expected to do at some point. Once that happens things will probably change. Russia has a history of leaders who turn away from the West only to be replaced by a successor who turns back to the West. Mr. Putin is just another in a long line of Russian leaders who have maintained this historical pattern. When that change happens, relations with the Government of Russia could change as well. Having one of the professionals from Global Affairs attending the garden party is designed to keep the lines of communications open for when the change takes place. It was completely justifiable and appropriate.

No, Campaigns Really Don't Matter

Neither does the political news that bombards us on a daily basis or social media.

I called the 2022 Ontario election in 2018. I knew then that Doug Ford would win, probably winning another majority. I was correct although I was mistaken about which party would become the Official Opposition.

The simple fact is all of the political minutiae that we are hammered with by the MSM and social media only registers with those of us who are politically inclined. For the rest nada. So, all of the stuff progressives have been talking about with regard to Doug Ford was just wind in a progressive echo chamber. The same is true with regard to the BS we have been hearing from conservatives regarding Justin Trudeau and his government. The vast majority of people who do not live and breath politics on a daily basis do not care.

Ordinary, non-political, people sleepwalk through political life. They do not pay attention during elections so it is a given they do not pay attention between them. That is one reason why I always chuckle when some political commentator states "Voters are not paying attention to the election yet" early in a campaign. I got news for you. They only paid attention for the few minutes it took them to get to the polling station and vote, if they even bothered to do that. The rest of the time it was all just noise to be ignored.

Some are blaming the media for this but this has been true for a very long time, including a time when the MSM actually did the job it was designed for. So, although it would make some feel better, the MSM cannot be blamed for this, which still does not excuse the modern MSM for their utter uselessness at informing their audiences of what is really going on in the world.

So what we are left with are historical voting patterns, something I have talked about at length in this blog. I wondered if a global pandemic would disrupt that pattern for just one election but considering two world wars failed to do so it should surprise no one that the pattern held this time.

Ordinary people, in all of the legacy democracies, have been sleepwalking through history, ignoring the old adage that the cost of freedom is eternal vigilance. It is one reason why I tend to be pessimistic about the future.

It is also something I recognized way back in 2006 when I started this blog, which is why I chose the quote from Plato that appears at the top of it.