The War in Ukraine: I would caution everybody not to believe what the media is saying about what is happening in the war. It is probably true that the war is not going exactly how the Russians believed it would but it is also probably true that Ukraine is not winning. I guess the big question is whether the Russians can sustain their effort for the medium to long-term. I do not believe so. Let's remember that the Russian economy, before the sanctions, was about the size of the Italian economy. The Italian economy could not sustain a prolonged war so the Russian economy will not be able to either. It is interesting, if Russia did not have nuclear weapons they would be as relevant in international affairs as Italy, probably less because at least Italy is a G7 country.
In the meantime, NATO should stay the course and avoid a direct confrontation with Russia
The Liberal/NDP Agreement: Let's not call it a coalition. Mr. Singh was not named Deputy PM and no other NDP MP has been named to cabinet. This is exactly what they say it is, an agreement to vote for confidence motions, budgets and other money bills, until 2025. However, make no mistake, if the Liberals run into some prolonged political trouble between now and then the NDP will break the deal.
The deal does have the potential to allow the government to make some serious headway in accomplishing its objectives. The same could be said for the NDP but that was going to happen anyway. The only real big difference between the two election platforms last year was the timing of accomplishing objectives.
We will have to want and see if this deal actually has legs.
The Conservative Leadership Race: The entrance of Mr. Charest was an interesting development. He has no chance of winning of course because the Conservatives have gone full on Trump. However, he could have provided Conservative members a true alternative to Trumpism. To put it another way he could be running a campaign completely different from his opponents and showing all voters, not just Conservatives, that there are reasonable alternatives to the Liberals. Instead, he decided to run the typical Conservative leadership campaign; no real substance, half baked policy ideas and "Trudeau bad".
It should be noted however that the campaign has proven one thing. There is no longer a centre-right alternative available to Canadians at the federal ballot box. The Liberals occupy the centre-left, with a heavy lean to the left, the NDP occupy the left and far left and the Conservatives and PPC are vying for the far right. If Conservatives were smart they would be looking for a leader to take advantage of the fact no party now represents the centre-right. A party that could take advantage of that fact, siphon off some disaffected Liberals and convince some of the more reasonable right wing Conservatives to water their wine a bit could form a solid government. That is not going to happen anytime soon, if at all.
Easing COVID Restrictions: A dumb idea at this time. It probably would have been better to ease them instead of getting rid of them immediately. What governments could have done was be transparent about it. They could have indicated some benchmarks that need to be achieved before easing given measures. They have had months to develop those very benchmarks. Instead they are doing it piecemeal and hoping for the best. Oh well, if we could very well have a sixth wave and if be do it will probably manifest itself in the late Spring and early Summer, which would suck for all concerned.
