I am rather conflicted on how I feel about the announcement by the federal government about their buying of the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Kinder Morgan. The reason for this is I can see both sides of the argument with regard to the pipeline.
On the pro-side petroleum products are pervasive in our lives. They not only heat our houses and provide us with a means of getting around they are used for practically everything we use. Unless you walk around barefoot wearing nothing but cotton, wool and linen you are wearing clothing whose fibres contain petroleum. The same is true if you use any kind of plastic. Virtually every plastic we use contains petroleum. In fact the list of everyday consumer items that use petroleum as part of the manufacturing process, excluding for producing the energy needed for that process, is too large articulate here.
That makes petroleum a valuable commodity and as Canada has a great deal of that commodity it is going to be pulled from the ground. That is a simple reality and there is no way to change that. When it gets pulled from the ground it has to go to market and the most efficient and safe way to do so is by pipeline. Note, pipelines are not perfectly safe but they are safer than the alternatives as the people of Lac Megantic learned a couple of summers ago.
On the con-side the pipeline in question is not going to be used to transport crude oil it is going to be used to transport diluted bitumen, or dilbit. Dilbit is nasty stuff. It is tar sands oil diluted with all sorts of chemicals to liquifiy it and then it is heated to high temperatures and shoved down the pipeline at high pressure. Further dilbit is heavier than water. So, if it spills into a body of water it does not float on the top waiting to be cleaned up it sinks to the bottom. For most bodies of water life begins on the bottom and it supports all other life above it. So, if dilbit were to destroy life on a significant stretch of seafloor all life in the ocean above would be destroyed along with it.
So both sides have strong arguments for and against. The problem is such arguments are almost always hijacked by the extremists on either side.
On the environmental side the extremists come off as a bunch of loonies. One of the arguments that I see alot from them is we need to ween ourselves off of petroleum products and shut down the industry. We can replace it with alternatives like solar and wind energy. Those two are fine examples of alternate ways to generate electricity but until someone finds a way to convert sunlight into material to manufacture the shirt I am wearing or to convert the wind into a container which I can use to store my left-overs, petroleum is here to stay.
Further environmentalists need to convince the broader public that being green will not cost them financially. It is another reality that most people, if they are faced with the choice of helping the environment or meeting their financial needs, will choose meeting their financial needs almost everytime. This is particularly true if the ecological costs will be felt in the future while the financial costs will be felt almost immediately. Many ecologists state that there is money to be made being green. I happen to agree with them but they are still going to have to continually work hard to prove that.
On the business side we see the typical shortsightedness that we have all grown used to seeing from business. As I stated above there is plenty of money to be made going green, even on endeavours that would seem not to be green at its inception but most businesses almost always take the opportunity to miss the opportunity to exploit that potential. As well, there are a large number of people out there who care about the environment. Many of them are motivated and well organized and they can play merry hell with any plans to develop projects like pipelines so business has an incentive to work with environmentalists to maximise their profits or even just to successfully complete projects.
Fortunately, there are pragmatists on both sides of this divide and perhaps they should be looking to work together so that they can demonstrate to everybody that the "choice" between the environment and the economy is a false one. There is no choice. They go hand-in-hand. Businesses can maximise profits considering the environment in their business processes and environmentalist can preserve the environment by helping business to pursue green practices in their business processes.
One note on the government buying the pipeline. I would have preferred that they did not do that but this is not the first time it has happened. For decades governments, of every political stripe, have been providing subsidies and bailouts to private companies in this country. It is a simple reality and it is not going to stop regardless of what politicians promise during election campaigns. So, since I cannot really do anything to stop this practice I am not going to really worry about it. By doing so I will probably live longer.
Oh yes, when is business in this country going to stop shipping raw materials to other countries for processing? One of my pet peeves is the Canadian practice of selling our raw resources to other countries, which then process it into a finished product and sell it back to us at a markup. We should be doing that ourselves. Unfortunately, Canada is a first rate country with a fourth rate business class, who do not have the motivation and the smarts to come up with new and innovative ways to make more money on the development of our resources.
So after all of this how to I feel about the government's decision? I am still conflicted.
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Monday, May 14, 2018
Conceding the world
I have argued a few times in this space that China is poised to become the premier power in the world, replacing the United States at the pinnacle of the international community.
It is in the interests of the United States to delay this transition as much as possible to allow the Western world to adjust to the new reality and just as importantly to allow the American people to adjust to it. Within a generation the American people will be faced with the reality that they and their country are not "touched by God" and "destined to rule the world". That fact will cause a great deal of angst amongst the American people once it becomes clear to them.
Which is why the decisions to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and to put the US embassy to Israel in Jerusalem are so wrong headed.
Make no mistake, the Chinese wants to replace the United States at the top of the international food chain. They are working very diligently to make it happen. For the most part they are doing it with money, which they have alot of and which they are spreading around very thickly in many parts of the world.
However, the Chinese are also going to take advanatage of any actions by the US government to allow it to use money and diplomacy to further their interests. The US gave them two openings this week.
The first is the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The Trump administration withdrew from the agreement and told the other signatories that they have to as well. Both China and Russia told the Trump Administration to piss up a rope. Therefore, any sanctions imposed by the US will be completely ineffective and all they will do is push Iran further into the Chinese camp. Iran is an important player in the Middle East so where it goes so goes its vassal states and organizations.
Fortunately for the United States Iran is not very popular with the Arab States. They could have acted as a counterweight to Iran in the region. However, it is going to be difficult to convince them to assist the US in pursuing its goals in the region after opening an embassy in Jerusalem. The US has always supported Israel over the Arabs and many of the Arab states have accepted that as the price of doing business. Putting an embassy in Jersalem, which is just as important to Muslims as it is to Jews and Christians is a real slap in the face to all Arabs, including those Arab states that have supported US policies in the region. A relationship that has been fraying for the better part of a decade is going to become even more threadbare and that is without the Chinese using the embassy decision to convince the Arab states that they have a better friend in China than the US, which you know they are going to do.
The Chinese are using money to buy influence in Africa, parts of South American and parts of Asia. Now the US has given them a diplomatic opening to increase their influence in the Middle East. Looking at the trend very soon the only influence that the West will be able to wield will be on itself. Large swaths of the planet that used to look to the West for assistance and guidance are being diligently worked on by China and very soon they will be the ones with the greatest influence in these regions.
The rise of China could create a new Cold War. If that is the case then the US is already well on its way to losing that war with the actions and decisions of the current Administration.
It is in the interests of the United States to delay this transition as much as possible to allow the Western world to adjust to the new reality and just as importantly to allow the American people to adjust to it. Within a generation the American people will be faced with the reality that they and their country are not "touched by God" and "destined to rule the world". That fact will cause a great deal of angst amongst the American people once it becomes clear to them.
Which is why the decisions to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and to put the US embassy to Israel in Jerusalem are so wrong headed.
Make no mistake, the Chinese wants to replace the United States at the top of the international food chain. They are working very diligently to make it happen. For the most part they are doing it with money, which they have alot of and which they are spreading around very thickly in many parts of the world.
However, the Chinese are also going to take advanatage of any actions by the US government to allow it to use money and diplomacy to further their interests. The US gave them two openings this week.
The first is the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The Trump administration withdrew from the agreement and told the other signatories that they have to as well. Both China and Russia told the Trump Administration to piss up a rope. Therefore, any sanctions imposed by the US will be completely ineffective and all they will do is push Iran further into the Chinese camp. Iran is an important player in the Middle East so where it goes so goes its vassal states and organizations.
Fortunately for the United States Iran is not very popular with the Arab States. They could have acted as a counterweight to Iran in the region. However, it is going to be difficult to convince them to assist the US in pursuing its goals in the region after opening an embassy in Jerusalem. The US has always supported Israel over the Arabs and many of the Arab states have accepted that as the price of doing business. Putting an embassy in Jersalem, which is just as important to Muslims as it is to Jews and Christians is a real slap in the face to all Arabs, including those Arab states that have supported US policies in the region. A relationship that has been fraying for the better part of a decade is going to become even more threadbare and that is without the Chinese using the embassy decision to convince the Arab states that they have a better friend in China than the US, which you know they are going to do.
The Chinese are using money to buy influence in Africa, parts of South American and parts of Asia. Now the US has given them a diplomatic opening to increase their influence in the Middle East. Looking at the trend very soon the only influence that the West will be able to wield will be on itself. Large swaths of the planet that used to look to the West for assistance and guidance are being diligently worked on by China and very soon they will be the ones with the greatest influence in these regions.
The rise of China could create a new Cold War. If that is the case then the US is already well on its way to losing that war with the actions and decisions of the current Administration.
Saturday, May 12, 2018
The governments we deserve
The Ontario election is underway and when all of the dust settles I imagine that we will have Premier Doug Ford leading a Progressive Conservative government.
Judging by what we have seen and heard from him in the early campaign and throughout his political life we can probably expect government polices along the lines of what we saw with Mike Harris, only being delivered by someone with alot less class.
In my previous post I mentioned that it is getting harder and harder for ordinary people to stay above water let alone get ahead. The ability of ordinary people, the so called middle class, to meet their basic needs, plan for their retirement and give their children a leg up for their future is eroding at a predigious rate. Hell, I read a survey last week that indicated that the majority of Canadians do not believe the next generation of Canadians will be as financially well off as the current generation. We all know that we are heading in the wrong direction. The signs are there but we cannot seem to figure out how to change direction.
So as a result many of those very same middle class people will vote for politicians who will pursue policies that will increase and accelerate that erosion, such as Doug Ford and the Conservatives. They will pursue the usual Conservative policies of cutting services and cutting taxes to the wealthy and corporations. Three decades of empirical evidence proves that such policies do great harm to the economy and the overall financial health of ordinary people but they do not care because their ideology states the opposite and Conservatives do not let the facts get in the way of their ideology.
So, the cycle will continue. The erosion of the ability of ordinary people to get ahead will continue, probably accelerating under Conservative policies, and the general malaise of ordinary people, as demonstrated by the poll I mentioned above, will intensify.
You have to wonder if and when there will be a breaking point.
Judging by what we have seen and heard from him in the early campaign and throughout his political life we can probably expect government polices along the lines of what we saw with Mike Harris, only being delivered by someone with alot less class.
In my previous post I mentioned that it is getting harder and harder for ordinary people to stay above water let alone get ahead. The ability of ordinary people, the so called middle class, to meet their basic needs, plan for their retirement and give their children a leg up for their future is eroding at a predigious rate. Hell, I read a survey last week that indicated that the majority of Canadians do not believe the next generation of Canadians will be as financially well off as the current generation. We all know that we are heading in the wrong direction. The signs are there but we cannot seem to figure out how to change direction.
So as a result many of those very same middle class people will vote for politicians who will pursue policies that will increase and accelerate that erosion, such as Doug Ford and the Conservatives. They will pursue the usual Conservative policies of cutting services and cutting taxes to the wealthy and corporations. Three decades of empirical evidence proves that such policies do great harm to the economy and the overall financial health of ordinary people but they do not care because their ideology states the opposite and Conservatives do not let the facts get in the way of their ideology.
So, the cycle will continue. The erosion of the ability of ordinary people to get ahead will continue, probably accelerating under Conservative policies, and the general malaise of ordinary people, as demonstrated by the poll I mentioned above, will intensify.
You have to wonder if and when there will be a breaking point.
Politics Matter
I have had more than a few conversations with people who do not believe this is the case. Their argument goes something like this. I vote in elections but no matter who is in power nothing really seems to change.
The problem with that argument is that 99% of politics takes place in between elections and behind closed doors.
If you do not believe me I would point to the fact that in every western democracy there is a broad and deep network of associations, thinktanks and organizations whose function is to push the points of view and the interests of businesses and corporations. These organizations along with the paid lobbyists that that businesses retain to represent them on specific issues cost Canadian businesses 10s of millions of dollars PER YEAR. Business, which is single mindedly concerned with profit, would not spend that kind of money on lobbying governments if they believed it would be ineffective, useless and not conducive to increasing their profits. Or to put it another way they would not invest that money into politics if they believed that politics did not matter.
All of this lobbying takes place outside of elections and for the most part it takes place where no camera or journalist is present to record it.
Lobbying is not evil. It is a necessary activity that helps governments to be effective and responsive to those they govern but it is also necessary that governments hear from a diversity of voices to maximise the efficacy of lobbying on policy making. In theory, when a government proposes a new policy all of those different voices weigh in and they rarely budge from their initial positions. It is up to government to find the compromise and remarkably that compromise almost always winds up being for the greater good. That diversity of voices has increasingly disappeared over the last couple decades with the result being that the voice of the business community has become the dominent one. It used to be that they were balanced out by Unions and other non-business interests but one of the objectives of the lobbying of businesses has been to reduce the ability of non-business interests in maintaining an effective voice with which to influence governments. That is one big reason why businesses and their allies on the right have been so relentless in attacking unions. While they are concerned about labour costs eating into their profits their greater motivation is to monopolize the ear of governments so that they will develop laws and policies that benefit them and only them. Unions are not perfect by any means and they are just as prone to stupidity as any other organization but they can provide alternate points of view which is crucial when making policy.
By the way if you believe that your interests align with the business community in any meaningful way you are naive. Any alignment is coincidental and transitory and government policies made exclusively for their benefit will not benefit you in the long run.
What has been the result? Well, do you feel safe in your job? Do you find it becoming more and more difficult to keep your financial head above water? The Canadian economy is booming , in a relative sense, do you feel that you are personally benefiting from that boom? Or is there always a little bit of fear in the back of your mind that your economic wellbeing is beyond your control and that through no fault of your own it could go off the rails at any time?
A more concrete example of how politics matters. In the current Ontario election I am certain electricity prices will be mentioned a few times. It should be noted that the foundation for the current high prices for electricity was laid in the 1990s when the government of Ontario decided to deregulate the electricity industry in the province. The problem was the electricity industry was a monopoly and it still is. So the government essentially gave a monopoly a free hand to set prices without any interference or accountability. If you have ever played the game of Monopoly it should not be too hard for you to figure out that such actions would lead to higher prices and they have been rising ever since. Incidentally, politicians will be talking about how to deal with high electricity prices in Ontario in the coming weeks. If any solution to high electricity prices spouted by a politician does not include the phrase “re-regulation of the Ontario electricity industry” they are talking out of their ass. The government gave up the power to stop the rise in electricity prices and to hold the electricity industry accountable for the high prices over 20 years ago. That is how it will stay unless they are willing to take back that power, which no Ontario political party has indicated they are prepared to do.
The funny thing is governments (of all political stripes) and business know that the imbalance is causing problems for ordinary people. They know it is creating a general malaise with citizens but they are unwilling to change course for a host of reasons. So instead they seek to distract and misdirect. Really, does anybody find it odd that one of the defining issues of the 2015 federal election was a piece of cloth worn by few thousand Muslim women? The economy was in the shitter but the niqab dominated the election campaign for weeks.
Will things change? No. For that to happen ordinary citizens need to be willing to become more involved in politics in between elections. They will need to be willing to make the effort of maintain sustained pressure on those who govern us to look out for out interests. Hell, ordinary citizens will need to figure out what their interests are for themselves instead of listening to what politicians and the media say are their interests. However, that will not happen. A few of us will try to influence politics for the benefit of the greater good but the majority will carry on in quiet desperation and do nothing.
The problem with that argument is that 99% of politics takes place in between elections and behind closed doors.
If you do not believe me I would point to the fact that in every western democracy there is a broad and deep network of associations, thinktanks and organizations whose function is to push the points of view and the interests of businesses and corporations. These organizations along with the paid lobbyists that that businesses retain to represent them on specific issues cost Canadian businesses 10s of millions of dollars PER YEAR. Business, which is single mindedly concerned with profit, would not spend that kind of money on lobbying governments if they believed it would be ineffective, useless and not conducive to increasing their profits. Or to put it another way they would not invest that money into politics if they believed that politics did not matter.
All of this lobbying takes place outside of elections and for the most part it takes place where no camera or journalist is present to record it.
Lobbying is not evil. It is a necessary activity that helps governments to be effective and responsive to those they govern but it is also necessary that governments hear from a diversity of voices to maximise the efficacy of lobbying on policy making. In theory, when a government proposes a new policy all of those different voices weigh in and they rarely budge from their initial positions. It is up to government to find the compromise and remarkably that compromise almost always winds up being for the greater good. That diversity of voices has increasingly disappeared over the last couple decades with the result being that the voice of the business community has become the dominent one. It used to be that they were balanced out by Unions and other non-business interests but one of the objectives of the lobbying of businesses has been to reduce the ability of non-business interests in maintaining an effective voice with which to influence governments. That is one big reason why businesses and their allies on the right have been so relentless in attacking unions. While they are concerned about labour costs eating into their profits their greater motivation is to monopolize the ear of governments so that they will develop laws and policies that benefit them and only them. Unions are not perfect by any means and they are just as prone to stupidity as any other organization but they can provide alternate points of view which is crucial when making policy.
By the way if you believe that your interests align with the business community in any meaningful way you are naive. Any alignment is coincidental and transitory and government policies made exclusively for their benefit will not benefit you in the long run.
What has been the result? Well, do you feel safe in your job? Do you find it becoming more and more difficult to keep your financial head above water? The Canadian economy is booming , in a relative sense, do you feel that you are personally benefiting from that boom? Or is there always a little bit of fear in the back of your mind that your economic wellbeing is beyond your control and that through no fault of your own it could go off the rails at any time?
A more concrete example of how politics matters. In the current Ontario election I am certain electricity prices will be mentioned a few times. It should be noted that the foundation for the current high prices for electricity was laid in the 1990s when the government of Ontario decided to deregulate the electricity industry in the province. The problem was the electricity industry was a monopoly and it still is. So the government essentially gave a monopoly a free hand to set prices without any interference or accountability. If you have ever played the game of Monopoly it should not be too hard for you to figure out that such actions would lead to higher prices and they have been rising ever since. Incidentally, politicians will be talking about how to deal with high electricity prices in Ontario in the coming weeks. If any solution to high electricity prices spouted by a politician does not include the phrase “re-regulation of the Ontario electricity industry” they are talking out of their ass. The government gave up the power to stop the rise in electricity prices and to hold the electricity industry accountable for the high prices over 20 years ago. That is how it will stay unless they are willing to take back that power, which no Ontario political party has indicated they are prepared to do.
The funny thing is governments (of all political stripes) and business know that the imbalance is causing problems for ordinary people. They know it is creating a general malaise with citizens but they are unwilling to change course for a host of reasons. So instead they seek to distract and misdirect. Really, does anybody find it odd that one of the defining issues of the 2015 federal election was a piece of cloth worn by few thousand Muslim women? The economy was in the shitter but the niqab dominated the election campaign for weeks.
Will things change? No. For that to happen ordinary citizens need to be willing to become more involved in politics in between elections. They will need to be willing to make the effort of maintain sustained pressure on those who govern us to look out for out interests. Hell, ordinary citizens will need to figure out what their interests are for themselves instead of listening to what politicians and the media say are their interests. However, that will not happen. A few of us will try to influence politics for the benefit of the greater good but the majority will carry on in quiet desperation and do nothing.
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